Urban freight logistics resilience: a case study of Sydney's CBD precincts

Thesis Abstract

Urban freight logistics in dense urban cores faces recurring disruptions from macro-events (e.g., extreme weather, public health measures) and micro-disruptions (e.g., loading bay bottlenecks, last-mile vehicle congestion). This study addresses the gap in understanding resilience dynamics for freight ecosystems within Sydney’s Central Business District (CBD) precincts, where commercial activity, high demand density, and strict regulatory environments interact to shape vulnerability and recovery trajectories. The aim is to develop an empirical, policy-relevant understanding of how urban freight logistics resilience emerges and can be enhanced in the Sydney CBD. Specific objectives are (1) to identify and quantify key disruption drivers and recovery pathways affecting CBD freight flows; (2) to evaluate the effectiveness of current resilience strategies (dock-to-door strategies, dedicated loading zones, time-window policies, and micro-distribution hubs) using incident and performance data from a twelve-month period; (3) to test the applicability of ecological resilience and socio-technical systems theories in explaining system adaptation, with explicit consideration of stakeholder networks, information flows, and regulatory constraints; (4) to develop a conceptual model linking institutional, environmental, and operational factors to resilience outcomes; and (5) to formulate evidence-based recommendations for policy and practice to enhance CBD freight resilience. A mixed-methods design is employed, combining quantitative and qualitative strands to capture both measurable performance changes and contextual understanding. The population comprises freight service providers, property managers, city planners, and delivery drivers operating in Sydney’s CBD precincts. A stratified random sample of 120 freight operators will be surveyed, complemented by 30 in-depth interviews with stakeholders across logistics firms, retail tenants, and municipal authorities. Data collection instruments include structured surveys addressing disruption frequency, delay duration, loading/unloading times, and perceived resilience, along with semi-structured interview guides to elicit elaborations on adaptation strategies, coordination mechanisms, and regulatory interactions. Administrative data from the City of Sydney on permit issuance, loading zone utilization, and traffic incident logs over 18 months will be integrated. Validity and reliability will be ensured through pilot testing (n=20) for the survey, triangulation across multiple data sources, and the use of standardized scales for resilience (e.g., a multi-item Likert scale validated in previous freight resilience studies). Data analysis will involve descriptive statistics to profile baseline performance, regression analysis to identify predictors of disruption duration and recovery time, time-series analysis to detect resilience patterns across seasons and events, and thematic analysis of interview transcripts to reveal core adaptation themes. A structural equation modeling (SEM) framework will test the proposed conceptual model linking institutional, environmental, and operational determinants to resilience outcomes, with model fit assessed via CFI, TLI, RMSEA, and SRMR criteria. Expected findings include (i) quantification of disruption impact on CBD delivery reliability, (ii) evidence that targeted resilience interventions—such as micro-distribution hubs and dynamic loading zone management—significantly reduce delay durations and recovery times, (iii) demonstration that stakeholder coordination and information-sharing networks mediate resilience, and (iv) validation of a CBD-specific resilience model integrating socio-technical and regulatory dimensions. The study contributes to knowledge by advancing an empirically grounded understanding of urban freight resilience in a high-density Australian metropolis, testing the applicability of ecological and socio-technical resilience theories in a regulatory urban context, and delivering a CBD-focused model for resilience enhancement. The main conclusion is that resilience in Sydney’s CBD freight system hinges on aligned governance, proactive space-sharing arrangements, and real-time coordination platforms that harmonize regulatory constraints with operational flexibility. Policy and practice recommendations include the expansion of dynamic loading zone systems, incentives for off-peak deliveries, formalized information-sharing protocols among retailers and couriers, and integration of freight resilience metrics into urban planning approvals. The study also identifies avenues for future research, such as comparative cross-city analyses and longitudinal assessments of post-pandemic recovery trajectories, to generalize findings and support scalable, evidence-based urban freight resilience strategies.