Design and Evaluation of Transit-Oriented Development in a Medium-Sized City

Thesis Abstract

This study investigates how Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) can be designed, implemented, and evaluated to enhance urban sustainability, mobility efficiency, and social equity in a medium-sized city undergoing rapid public transportation expansion. The problem addressed is the uneven integration of new transit infrastructure with land-use patterns, resulting in underutilized stations, increased car dependency on peripheries, and inequitable access to transit benefits across neighborhoods. The aim is to develop a TOD design and evaluation framework tailored to mid-sized urban contexts, accompanied by empirical evidence on performance, livability, and equity outcomes. Specific objectives are (1) to assess current land-use and mobility baselines around key transit nodes; (2) to formulate TOD policy instruments and urban design guidelines that align density, mix, and connectivity with transit capacity; (3) to implement a pilot TOD design in one selected node and simulate alternative scenarios; (4) to evaluate the pilot using multi-criteria performance indicators across social, economic, and environmental dimensions; and (5) to propose an actionable governance and monitoring system for scalable TOD adoption. Methodologically, the study employs a mixed-methods design anchored in a pragmatic paradigm. The population comprises residents, commuters, small business owners, and local planners within a 1.5-kilometer radius of the three existing or planned rail/Bus Rapid Transit nodes. A stratified random sample of 1,200 households and 250 businesses is drawn to achieve representation by income, tenure, and sector. Data collection instruments include a structured household survey (n=1,200) to capture travel behavior, housing preferences, and perceived accessibility; semi-structured interviews with 40 stakeholders from planning authorities, developers, and community associations; and focus groups with 6 neighborhoods (approximately 60 participants) to explore social impacts. Secondary data are gathered from transit ridership records, land-use maps, zoning ordinances, property price trends, and pedestrian/cyclist counts. The pilot TOD design is developed in collaboration with urban designers and engineers, applying density, mix-use, and active-ground-floor principles aligned with transit capacity projections. For data analysis, quantitative data from surveys are analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and multiple regression to identify determinants of transit usage and housing location choice, complemented by a hedonic pricing model to quantify land-value effects of TOD attributes. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis maps spatial patterns, proximity to stations, walkability scores, and access to amenities. Qualitative data from interviews and focus groups are subjected to thematic analysis to identify perceived benefits, trade-offs, and governance challenges, with triangulation across sources to enhance validity. A scenario-based evaluation employs a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare TOD outcomes under three design alternatives compact TOD with high-density core, corridor-based TOD with station-area clustering, and baseline non-TOD development. The study also utilizes the Theory of Planned Behavior to interpret observed changes in travel intentions and social influence theory to understand community engagement dynamics. The integrated conceptual model links urban form, accessibility, economic vitality, and social equity to quantify TOD performance. Expected findings include enhanced transit ridership and mode share, increased nearby property values with appropriate affordability safeguards, improved pedestrian and cycling conditions, and more diverse business ecosystems near stations. Bounded trade-offs may arise between higher intensification and affordable housing retention, necessitating policy instruments such as inclusionary zoning, transfer of development rights, and station-area design codes. The study contributes to knowledge by validating a transferable TOD design and evaluation framework for medium-sized cities, demonstrating how land-use policy, financial incentives, and governance arrangements interact to realize TOD benefits, and by offering a robust methodological approach that integrates quantitative and qualitative insights with GIS-based spatial analysis and MCDA. The main conclusion anticipates that TOD, when carefully designed around transit capacity, with explicit housing affordability provisions and inclusive community engagement, can deliver significant mobility, economic, and social benefits in medium-sized cities. Recommendations include adopting a phased pilot-to-scale approach, embedding TOD-specific performance metrics in municipal planning cycles, establishing a TOD monitoring dashboard, and fostering cross-sector partnerships among public agencies, private developers, and community organizations to sustain equitable access and livability outcomes.