Comparative Analysis of Transit-Oriented Development in Two Cities

Thesis Abstract

This study investigates the comparative effectiveness of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) in two mid-sized metropolitan contexts to identify how urban form, transport accessibility, and socio-economic outcomes converge or diverge under differing policy environments. The problem addressed centers on inconsistent TOD implementation outcomes across cities with similar transit infrastructure, which hampers transferable policy learning and scaling. The aim is to determine how governance, land-use planning, and public participation mediate the relationship between TOD interventions and outcomes such as housing affordability, mode share, and economic vitality. Specific objectives include (1) evaluating changes in residential density, land-use mix, and pedestrian accessibility around TOD corridors over a ten-year window; (2) assessing shifts in public transit mode share and average commute times; (3) analyzing housing affordability trends and displacement risks associated with TOD near station nodes; (4) examining the role of governance arrangements and stakeholder engagement in shaping TOD performance; and (5) developing a comparative model to predict TOD outcomes under varying policy regimes. Methodologically, the study adopts a mixed-methods, comparative cross-sectional design anchored in the theoretical framework of Smart Growth and the Theory of Planned Behavior, with elements of the Tiebout sorting model to interpret neighborhood choice in TOD areas. The population comprises all station-adjacent neighborhoods within two comparable cities operating a light-rail or heavy-rail TOD program, totaling approximately 42 precincts per city. A stratified random sampling approach yields a dataset of 84 TOD neighborhoods, with fixed parameter sampling to ensure representation of high-, medium-, and low-density TODs. Quantitative data are collected from municipal GIS databases, transit ridership records, housing tenure statistics, and socio-economic indicators for 2014–2024. Instrumentation includes a standardized TOD Performance Index (TPI) derived from land-use mix, intensity, accessibility, and transit service quality metrics, plus a resident survey instrument with a sample size of 1,200 households per city (n=2,400 total) to capture perceptions of affordability, displacement risk, and accessibility benefits. Qualitative data are gathered through 40 semi-structured interviews with planners, developers, and community leaders, and six focus groups with residents, ensuring triangulation of findings. Data analysis proceeds in two strands. Quantitative analysis employs difference-in-differences estimation to identify TOD-related changes over time, multivariate regression to explain determinants of TPI scores and mode share, and spatial econometrics to account for neighborhood spillovers. The qualitative component uses thematic analysis guided by Braun and Clarke's approach to extract themes on governance, stakeholder engagement, and policy coherence, followed by a convergent triangulation to integrate quantitative and qualitative findings. The study also specifies a structural equation model to test the hypothesized pathways linking governance quality, land-use policy, and transport outcomes to affordability and displacement indicators. Expected findings indicate that well-governed TODs with integrated affordable housing policies exhibit higher increases in residential density and job accessibility, a more favorable transit mode share, and modest reductions in car dependency compared with TODs lacking such governance supports. It is anticipated that disparities in affordability outcomes will correlate with differences in land-use regulation, developer incentives, and community participation processes. The analysis will likely reveal that the most successful TODs leverage cross-agency coordination, predictable policy frameworks, and targeted anti-displacement measures, while weaker TODs show increased pressures on lower-income households and housing unaffordability despite improved transit access. The study contributes to knowledge by generating transferable insights on how governance and policy design shape TOD performance across comparable urban contexts, extending the empirical basis for TOD typologies and policy recipes. It advances methodological rigor through a robust mixed-methods design and a practical TOD Performance Index enabling comparability. The primary conclusion is that TOD success hinges on synchronized land-use planning, affordable housing integration, and participatory governance, with tailored strategies required to mitigate displacement in different city contexts. Recommendations include institutionalizing cross-departmental TOD dashboards, expanding inclusive housing policies, implementing phased development with affordability covenants, and facilitating continuous community engagement to sustain TOD benefits.