A Framework for Analyzing Political Trust in Post-Conflict Societies

Thesis Abstract

Post-conflict societies often grapple with diminished levels of political trust, which undermine reconciliation efforts, democratic consolidation, and sustainable peace. This study addresses the critical need for a comprehensive framework to analyze the multifaceted nature of political trust within such contexts, emphasizing the interplay between institutional performance, social cohesion, historical grievances, and media influence. The primary aim is to develop, empirically validate, and refine an analytical model that captures the determinants and dynamics of political trust in post-conflict environments. Specific objectives include identifying key trust antecedents, examining their relative influence, assessing the role of conflict-related trauma, and proposing policy interventions to rebuild trust. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative and quantitative techniques to ensure a nuanced understanding of the phenomena. The quantitative component employs a cross-sectional survey design targeting a representative sample of 1,200 adult citizens across three post-conflict regions within the country, selected through stratified random sampling to ensure demographic and geographic diversity. Data collection is conducted via structured questionnaires validated through a pilot study, incorporating scales adapted from established trust measures such as the Political Trust Scale and the Institutional Trust Index, ensuring construct validity and internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha > 0.80). The qualitative component involves in-depth interviews with 30 key informants—including policymakers, civil society leaders, and victim representatives—analyzed using thematic analysis to contextualize quantitative findings. Data analysis employs multiple regression analysis to identify significant predictors of political trust, with variables such as perceived institutional fairness, media consumption patterns, and socio-economic factors included as independent variables. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is utilized to test a proposed theoretical framework, incorporating variables derived from Social Capital Theory and Conflict Resolution Theory, to examine the pathways through which trust is cultivated or eroded post-conflict. Thematic analysis of interview transcripts further enriches understanding by exploring contextual factors, narratives, and emotional dimensions associated with trust perceptions. The anticipated findings will likely reveal that institutional transparency, past injustices, and social cohesion significantly affect political trust levels, with trauma and memories of violence acting as moderating variables. It is also expected that media exposure—particularly to conflict-related narratives—has both empowering and divisive effects on public trust. The study aims to demonstrate the mediating roles of social capital and civic participation, offering a nuanced perspective on how trust reforms can be strategically implemented. This research contributes novel insights into the field of political science by proposing an integrated analytical framework tailored to post-conflict settings, which synthesizes theoretical elements from institutional legitimacy, transitional justice, and social trust paradigms. It advances existing literature by empirically validating the model within a complex post-conflict society and by providing evidence-based policy recommendations. The main conclusion underscores the importance of multi-dimensional trust initiatives that address institutional reforms, social reconciliation, and trauma healing to foster enduring political trust. Recommendations include strengthening transparency mechanisms, promoting inclusive dialogue processes, and leveraging media for constructive narratives. The study also suggests directions for future research, such as longitudinal assessments of trust recovery over time and comparative analyses across different post-conflict countries. Overall, this research aims to equip policymakers, scholars, and practitioners with a theoretically grounded, empirically validated framework to enhance political trust and support sustainable peacebuilding efforts in post-conflict societies.