A Valence-Driven Framework for Sustainable Brand Loyalty Formation

Thesis Abstract

This study examines how valence-driven cues influence sustainable brand loyalty formation in consumer markets characterized by increasing information volatility and rising environmental and ethical expectations. The central problem addressed is the inconsistency between short-term promotional messaging and long-term loyalty outcomes, which often undermines sustainable brand equity. The aim is to develop a valence-driven framework that links perceived positive and negative valence in brand communications and experiences to sustained loyalty, moderated by customer values, trust, and perceived sustainability authenticity. Specific objectives include (1) identifying how positive valence (trust, warmth, and ethical signaling) and negative valence (perceived risk, distrust, and perceived greenwashing) differentially affect attitudinal and behavioral loyalty; (2) examining the mediating role of brand trust and perceived authenticity in the valence–loyalty relationship; (3) assessing the moderating effects of individual values (altruism and materialism) and situational factors (product category, level of competitiveness) on these relationships; (4) articulating a parsimonious model that integrates signaling theory, expectancy-confirmation theory, and value-based brand equity perspectives to generate a robust, scalable framework for practice. The study adopts a cross-sectional, mixed-methods design comprising a quantitative core complemented by qualitative insights. A stratified random sample of 1,200 adult consumers from three major urban markets will be surveyed to ensure diversity across age, income, and education. The instrument will measure constructs including perceived valence of brand communications, perceived sustainability authenticity, brand trust, attitude toward the brand, purchase intention, and actual repurchase behavior, alongside values and situational moderators. Reliability will be assessed with Cronbach’s alpha and composite reliability, while validity will be established through confirmatory factor analysis. Structural equation modeling (SEM) will test the hypothesized valence–loyalty pathways, with multi-group SEM to explore moderation by values and contexts. Complementary qualitative data will be drawn from 40 in-depth interviews with long-term customers of sustainability-oriented brands to triangulate findings and enrich interpretation of valence dynamics, analyzed through thematic analysis guided by the theoretical framework. Expected findings include (a) positive valence signals in brand communications and experiences positively influence cognitive and affective loyalty via enhanced trust and perceived authenticity, while negative valence signals exert a countervailing effect primarily through perceived risk and distrust; (b) trust and perceived authenticity will partially mediate the valence–loyalty link, accounting for a substantial portion of the variance in repurchase behavior; (c) consumer values such as altruism amplify the positive valence effects on loyalty, whereas higher materialism attenuates them; (d) context-specific factors (e.g., product category with high sustainability relevance) strengthen the valence effects on loyalty. The study expects to explain a meaningful portion of variance in sustainable brand loyalty (anticipated R2 substantial for the endogenous latent variables), with robust model fit indices across both urban markets. Contributions to knowledge include the introduction of a valence-driven framework that integrates signaling theory, expectancy-confirmation theory, and value-based brand equity to explain sustainable loyalty formation. The research extends consumer psychology and marketing theory by delineating how valence dimensions interact with trust and authenticity to shape long-term loyalty, offering a predictive model adaptable across product categories and cultural settings. Practical implications emphasize how brands can design balanced valence cues—reducing negative signals while amplifying credible positive signals—alongside authenticity verification mechanisms (third-party certifications, transparent reporting) to cultivate durable loyalty. Recommendations for managers include implementing ongoing valence audits of communications, investing in transparency initiatives to bolster perceived authenticity, and tailoring loyalty programs to values-driven segments. The study concludes that sustainable brand loyalty emerges from a calibrated interplay of valence cues, trust, and authenticity within contextually sensitive consumer value matrices, underscoring the strategic importance of ethical signaling and transparency in long-term brand equity development.