Resource nationalism and import diversification: a field study in East Asian trade policy

Thesis Abstract

Resource nationalism in East Asian trade policy has intensified scrutiny of how governments mobilize domestic resource controls to influence import diversification, with implications for regional supply chains, multinational sourcing strategies, and broader geopolitical alignments. The study addresses the problem of how resource nationalism shapes import diversification patterns in East Asia, particularly in the context of volatile commodity markets, strategic sectors, and evolving trade agreements. The aim is to theoretically and empirically assess the linkages between state-driven resource constraints and firms’ diversification of import portfolios, and to identify policy levers that can mitigate fragmentation while sustaining growth. Specific objectives are (1) to map the evolution of resource nationalist measures in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan over the last two decades; (2) to evaluate the impact of these measures on import diversification indices (Herfindahl-Hirschman and entropy measures) across key intermediate goods sectors; (3) to analyze firm-level responses, including supplier diversification, offshoring/nearshoring decisions, and stockpiling behavior; (4) to test the relevance of institutional theory and resource dependency theory in explaining policy variation and firm adaptation; and (5) to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations for balancing national strategic objectives with regional economic integration. The research adopts a mixed-methods design anchored in an explanatory sequential approach. The population comprises national policy documents, trade statistics, and firm-level data from the manufacturing and intermediate goods sectors within four East Asian economies China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. A purposive sampling strategy targets two policy periods characterized by pronounced resource nationalism 2008–2013 and 2014–2024, complemented by a panel of 120 manufacturing firms (30 per country) selected through stratified random sampling to reflect sectoral heterogeneity (electronics, automotive components, chemicals, and metals). Data collection combines (i) archival data from official trade ministries, customs databases, and international organizations; (ii) semi-structured interviews with 40 policy-makers and 60 senior firm managers; and (iii) firm-level survey data capturing procurement networks, import portfolio compositions, and supply chain risk perceptions. Analytically, the study employs a multi-tiered strategy descriptive statistics to profile resource nationalist measures and import diversification trends; vector autoregression (VAR) to identify dynamic relationships between policy instruments and diversification metrics; fixed-effects panel regression to control for heterogeneity across firms and countries; and instrumental-variable techniques to address endogeneity concerns between policy shifts and import patterns. At the firm level, thematic analysis of interview transcripts and qualitative coding will illuminate decision heuristics and strategic rationales guiding supplier diversification, complemented by network analysis of supplier relationships to map changes in sourcing connectedness. The theoretical framing draws on institutional theory and resource dependence theory to explain how political authority and external resource constraints shape firm behavior and policy outcomes. Expected findings anticipate that intensified resource nationalism correlates with narrower supplier bases in highly strategic sectors but prompts complementary diversification into less scrutinized suppliers and adjacent regions, yielding a nuanced, non-linear effect on import diversification. It is hypothesized that stronger national-resource incentives elevate supplier risk and increase the incidence of dual sourcing and nearshoring in technologically advanced sectors, while reducing diversification in commodity-intensive inputs. The study also expects heterogeneity across countries and sectors, with Japan and Taiwan exhibiting more diversified resilience strategies due to mature supplier ecosystems, and China and Korea showing sharper responses aligned with state-led industrial policy. The contribution to knowledge includes refining understanding of how resource nationalism interacts with regional integration dynamics, expanding empirical evidence on import diversification in East Asia, and offering a bounded model of firm resilience under political economy constraints. Policy implications center on balancing strategic autonomy with supply chain resilience, suggesting mechanisms such as transparent criteria for resource-related controls, targeted support for diversified supplier development, and regional coordination to prevent escalation of protectionist measures that could disrupt intra-East Asian value chains. The study concludes that prudent governance of resource nationalism, aligned with predictable policy signals and investment in supplier diversification, can sustain both national strategic objectives and regional economic growth. Recommendations for further research include exploring the role of digital traceability technologies in monitoring diversification and extending the analysis to Southeast Asian economies to assess regional spillovers.