Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating a Regional Climate Security Framework in Southeast Asia

Thesis Abstract

The rapid frequency and intensity of climate-induced hazards across Southeast Asia threaten regional stability, economic development, and human security, necessitating an integrated regional framework that aligns climate risk management with security governance. This study aims to design, implement, and evaluate a regional climate security framework for Southeast Asia that synchronizes environmental, socio-economic, and political dimensions to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. Specific objectives include (1) identifying core climate-security threats and transboundary risk pathways within the region; (2) developing a governance model that integrates national adaptation plans, disaster risk reduction mechanisms, and regional security cooperation; (3) piloting a conduct of operations protocol for cross-border information sharing, risk assessment, and joint response; (4) evaluating the framework’s effectiveness through empirical testing of governance processes, capacity, and outcomes; and (5) providing policy recommendations for scalable implementation across member states. The study adopts a mixed-methods design anchored in the structured, theory-driven approach of the governance and security nexus. The population comprises government agencies, regional organizations (e.g., ASEAN), and civil society actors across six Southeast Asian states (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore). A purposive sample of 60 key informants (policy-makers, disaster management officials, security analysts, and climate researchers) will be complemented by 200 survey respondents drawn from local government agencies and community-based organizations in coastal and delta regions disproportionately affected by cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise. Data collection will employ semi-structured interviews, a standardized governance assessment questionnaire, and scenario-based simulations conducted in stakeholder workshops. Instrument validity will be established through expert review, pilot testing with 20 respondents, and triangulation with documentary evidence and climate exposure data from regional meteorological agencies. Reliability will be assessed using Cronbach’s alpha for the survey instrument and intercoder agreement for qualitative coding. Quantitative data will be analyzed using multivariate regression to examine determinants of governance efficacy, structural equation modeling to test the proposed regional framework’s pathways, and ANOVA to compare differences across country contexts. Qualitative data from interviews and workshops will undergo thematic analysis guided by the theoretical framework, with coding conducted by two independent researchers and consensus-building sessions to ensure reliability. A nested analytical model will integrate qualitative insights with quantitative indicators into a composite regional climate security index, calibrated against historical hazard exposure and socio-economic vulnerability metrics. The theoretical foundations integrate the ESG (Environmental, Security, Governance) nexus and the adaptive governance paradigm, drawing on specific theories of regional security complex and resilience theory to justify cross-border coordination and shared risk governance. Key expected findings include (i) a set of transferable governance mechanisms and data-sharing protocols that enable timely risk assessment and joint decision-making; (ii) evidence of improved early warning integration, cross-border contingency planning, and resource pooling during simulated hazard events; (iii) identification of institutional bottlenecks, political economy constraints, and capacity gaps that impede implementation; (iv) a validated regional climate security index capable of benchmarking progress across member states; and (v) policy levers for scaling the framework, including standardized funding arrangements, legal instruments for information exchange, and capacity-building curricula. The study contributes to knowledge by bridging regional security studies with climate adaptation and disaster governance, offering a replicable design for regional climate security frameworks in other multi-state regions, and delivering an empirically grounded assessment tool for policymakers. The main conclusion anticipates that a formally codified regional framework, underpinned by interoperable data-sharing platforms and joint operational protocols, substantially elevates collective resilience to climate hazards in Southeast Asia. Recommendations include establishing a ASEAN-wide climate security secretariat, formalizing legal basis for cross-border data exchange, investing in community-based resilience programs, and integrating the framework into national development plans to ensure long-term sustainability and policy coherence.