Comparative Analysis of Climate Governance in Small States and Neighbors

Thesis Abstract

Small states face outsized climate risks and constrained policy capacity, yet their governance arrangements and regional linkages to neighboring countries shape adaptive responses, mitigation efforts, and access to climate finance. This study examines how institutional arrangements, intergovernmental coordination, and international engagement influence climate governance in a comparative cross-border context between ten small island developing states (SIDS) and their five continental neighbors within the same maritime regions. The aim is to assess differences in policy design, implementation effectiveness, and resilience outcomes, to identify transferability of best practices and to illuminate how regional integration modulates climate governance. Specifically, the study pursues four objectives (1) to map and compare formal institutions, governance actors, and policy instruments across small states and their neighbors; (2) to evaluate the effectiveness of climate policy implementation using indicators of emission reductions, adaptation capacity, and access to climate finance; (3) to analyze the role of regional cooperation mechanisms (e.g., regional seas programs, trade and security pacts) in shaping policy choices and resource mobilization; and (4) to theorize how governance arrangements mediate climate resilience under fiscal and political constraints. A mixed-methods design is employed. The quantitative strand uses a panel dataset for the 2005–2024 period, comprising 15 cases (10 small states and 5 neighbors), with variables on climate policy intensity, adaptation funding, vulnerability indices, and resilience outcomes. Regression analysis with fixed effects tests whether regional integration and governance quality predict stronger mitigation and adaptation performance, controlling for GDP per capita, climate risk exposure, and sovereignty-related governance constraints. Complementary techniques include propensity score matching to compare analogous states and robustness checks with instrumental variables to address endogeneity. The qualitative strand triangulates with 40 semi-structured interviews of government officials, regional organization representatives, and civil society actors, plus 24 policy documents and 12 climate action plans, analyzed through thematic analysis to uncover mechanisms of policy diffusion, intergovernmental coordination, and finance mobilization. The study applies the Institutional Theory of Governance and the Networked Regionalism framework to interpret findings, drawing on realist and constructivist notions to explain how power, legitimacy, and knowledge flows shape climate policy choices. Where appropriate, a conceptual model synthesizes governance actors, regional linkages, and policy instruments into outcomes of resilience and low-carbon transitions. Data collection combines primary fieldwork in two regional hubs with remote interviews, ensuring representation across maritime regions and continental neighbors. Validity and reliability are addressed through triangulation, coding reliability checks (Cohen’s kappa > 0.70), and pilot interviews. Ethical considerations include informed consent, data protection, and sensitivity to political dynamics in small states. The study anticipates key findings regional integration and networked governance enhance access to climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building, yet may also generate policy diffusion challenges and standardization trade-offs that neglect local contexts. It is expected that small states with diversified agency—engaging multiple regional partners and aligning national strategies with regional action plans—will demonstrate higher resilience gains than more insular states. The analysis will identify effective governance configurations, including embedded adaptation planning within sectoral ministries, performance-based funding, and participatory governance mechanisms that incorporate local knowledge. Contributions to knowledge include (i) a comparative understanding of how small-state climate governance configurations interact with neighboring states to determine mitigation and adaptation outcomes; (ii) empirical evidence on the moderating role of regional institutions in financing, technology transfer, and policy diffusion; and (iii) a refined theoretical synthesis of Institutional Governance Theory and Networked Regionalism in the climate domain. The study concludes with practical recommendations for policymakers align regional frameworks with national climate action plans, institutionalize joint financing facilities and knowledge-sharing platforms, and foster inclusive governance that integrates local communities to enhance legitimacy and effectiveness. It also suggests directions for future research, including longitudinal analyses of post-disaster governance reforms and comparative studies that incorporate non-maritime neighboring contexts.