China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Small-State Strategic Alignment in the Caribbean

Thesis Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents a strategic opportunity for small Caribbean states to recalibrate their foreign policy, economic diversification, and regional security dynamics in the face of competing external influences and limited domestic capacity. This study investigates how small Caribbean economies align with BRI projects, assesses the drivers and constraints of such alignment, and evaluates the implications for governance, sovereignty, and development outcomes. The aim is to illuminate the conditions under which Caribbean states pursue, negotiate, and monitor BRI engagement, and to identify policy options that maximize national welfare while safeguarding strategic autonomy. Specific objectives are (1) to map BRI-related investments, loans, and collaboration agreements in Jamaica, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago between 2015 and 2024; (2) to analyze the strategic rationales—economic, political, and security—for alignment using institutional economics and neoclassical realist theory; (3) to examine governance mechanisms, risk management, and transparency in BRI arrangements; (4) to assess perceived and actual developmental impacts on infrastructure, trade diversification, and local industry capacity; and (5) to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations for optimizing small-state agency within the BRI framework. The research adopts a mixed-methods design, combining quantitative analysis of project data and financial flows with qualitative insights from stakeholder perspectives. The population comprises official policy documents, loan agreements, project contracts, and public procurement records from the Ministries of Finance, Transport, and Planning of the three focal states, supplemented by interviews with 24 policymakers, 12 representatives from state-owned enterprises, 6 project consultants, and 8 regional experts. A purposive sampling approach targets documents with explicit BRI parameters and interviews capturing both host-state and third-party actor perspectives. Data collection uses a structured archival review, semi-structured interviews, and a thematic content analysis of policy discourse. For the quantitative strand, regression analyses are deployed to identify determinants of project selection and perceived economic impact, while network analysis maps the intergovernmental and multilateral linkages underpinning BRI engagement. The theoretical framework integrates neoclassical realism to explain external power influence, and institutional economics to account for governance, transaction costs, and policy path dependence. Validity and reliability are ensured through triangulation, intercoder reliability testing (Cohen’s kappa > 0.75), and robustness checks with alternate model specifications. Expected findings indicate heterogeneous alignment patterns across the three countries, with Jamaica showing stronger infrastructural emphasis and Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago prioritizing financial terms and governance safeguards. The study anticipates that alignment is mediated by incumbent political alignment with Beijing, macroeconomic vulnerability, debt sustainability concerns, and institutional capacity to absorb technology transfer and procurement standards. It is expected that more transparent, participatory governance mechanisms correlate with higher perceived benefits and lower geopolitical vulnerability, while opaque arrangements correlate with increased sovereign risk and social opposition. The research also anticipates identifying a typology of small-state BRI engagement—minimalist, moderate, and comprehensive—linked to levels of domestic capacity, diversification of lenders, and regional integration dynamics. The study contributes to knowledge by delivering a theoretically grounded, empirically rigorous account of how small states in the Caribbean navigate great-power infrastructure initiatives, advancing understanding of strategic alignment, risk governance, and development outcomes under the BRI. It offers a practical framework for evaluating future BRI projects in similar small-state contexts, including indicators for governance quality, debt sustainability, local capability development, and alignment with national development plans. Policy implications emphasize the need for enhanced transparency, clear contractual terms, strong domestic institutions to monitor compliance, and regional cooperation mechanisms to balance external influence with sovereignty and development priorities. The main conclusion is that deliberate, well-governed alignment—characterized by transparent governance, diversified financing, and proactive domestic capacity-building—can harness BRI opportunities to bolster infrastructural development and economic diversification while maintaining strategic autonomy. Recommendations include establishing a regional BRI governance platform, standardizing due diligence processes, expanding public-ownership monitoring, and pursuing targeted knowledge transfer agreements to strengthen local firms and workforce competencies.