A Model for Analyzing Power Dynamics in Multilateral Climate Negotiations

Thesis Abstract

The growing complexity and high stakes of multilateral climate negotiations necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the underlying power dynamics that influence negotiation outcomes and international climate policy formulation. Despite extensive scholarship on climate diplomacy, there remains a significant gap in systematically modeling these power relations to predict behaviors and structure negotiations more effectively. This study aims to develop a conceptual and empirical model that elucidates the determinants and interactions of power among key actors in multilateral climate negotiations, with a primary focus on state and non-state actors involved in the Paris Agreement framework. The specific objectives include identifying the core components of power as operationalized in climate diplomacy, analyzing the influence of economic, political, and institutional factors on actor power, and constructing an analytical framework capable of predicting negotiation leverage and potential compromises. Employing a mixed-methods research design, the study synthesizes qualitative and quantitative data to formulate, test, and validate the proposed power dynamics model. The qualitative component involves thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with 30 negotiation experts, policymakers, and representatives of environmental NGOs, supplemented by an in-depth review of negotiation transcripts from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conferences held between 2015 and 2022. The quantitative component comprises a survey administered to 150 negotiation participants from diverse country groupings and stakeholder backgrounds, employing structured questionnaires with Likert-scale items designed to measure perceived power levels and influence factors. The sample was selected through stratified random sampling to ensure representation across major actor categories, such as developed nations, developing economies, and non-state actors. Data analysis utilized a combination of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis (using SPSS and AMOS software) to identify latent constructs of power, followed by regression analysis to ascertain the relationships between economic, political, and institutional variables and actor influence. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to validate the proposed theoretical framework and assess the strength of hypothesized relationships. The study also incorporates social network analysis to map the interplay among actors within negotiation coalitions, offering a nuanced understanding of influence flows and alliance formations. Expected findings include the identification of key determinants of power—such as financial capacity, institutional authority, and diplomatic leverage—and how these factors interact within negotiation settings. Variations in power dynamics influenced by regional bloc membership, economic size, and strategic interests are anticipated to emerge, providing insights into how actor influence shapes negotiation strategies and outcomes. The model is expected to reveal the asymmetric nature of climate negotiations, highlighting the strategic behaviors of dominant players and the adaptive responses of weaker participants. This research contributes novel theoretical insights by integrating power theories—namely, realist and constructivist perspectives—into a unified, empirically validated model tailored to climate diplomacy. It advances the understanding of how power manifests and operates within multilateral negotiations, offering a framework for policymakers, negotiators, and scholars to assess leverage, predict negotiation trajectories, and design more effective diplomatic strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for enhancing equitable power distribution, fostering inclusive negotiation processes, and reforming institutional arrangements to mitigate asymmetries. It advocates for the institutionalization of transparent influence metrics and increased capacity-building for developing nations to balance bargaining power in future climate negotiations. The findings suggest avenues for further research into the application of the model across regional climate accords and other international environmental negotiations, with an emphasis on longitudinal studies to examine evolving power structures over time.