Assessing Post-Conflict Memory Politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1995–2025

Thesis Abstract

The post-conflict memory politics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, since the 1995 Dayton Accords, sits at a crucial intersection of transitional justice, nation-building, and ethno-political representation, shaping public discourse, education, museum narratives, and commemorative practices. This study addresses the problem of how contested memories of the 1992–1995 conflict influence contemporary political alignments, interethnic trust, and policy-making in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with particular attention to the role of memorial sites, media framing, and educational curricula in perpetuating or challenging nationalist narratives. The aim is to assess the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of memory politics across post-conflict space, identifying patterns of convergence and divergence among Bosniak, Croat, and Serb communities. The specific objectives are (1) to map the evolution of official and unofficial memory narratives in state institutions, municipalities, and civil society from 1995 to 2025; (2) to analyze how memory frames influence policy preferences, electoral behavior, and party competition in three representative cantons; (3) to evaluate the impact of memorialization on interethnic trust and reconciliation using mixed-method indicators; (4) to investigate media representations and educational content as mediators of memory politics; and (5) to generate policy recommendations for more inclusive, pluralistic memory governance. The study employs a mixed-methods design anchored in constructivist ontology and interpretivist epistemology. The population includes historians, educators, political actors, and journalists, with a targeted sample of 60 in-depth interviews (20 Bosniaks, 20 Croats, 20 Serbs) and 24 focus groups (8 per ethnic/community area Sarajevo Canton, Tuzla Canton, and Republika Srpska urban centers). Survey data will be collected from 1,200 adult residents (400 per canton) to quantify attitudes toward memory narratives, trust in institutions, and support for memorialization policies. Data collection instruments comprise semi-structured interview guides, a standardized attitudinal survey, content analysis coding schemes for school curricula and media outputs, and a structured inventory of memorial sites. Validity and reliability will be ensured through triangulation, pilot testing, intercoder reliability checks (Cohens’ kappa above 0.70), and back-translation procedures for instruments. The analytical framework integrates thematic analysis for qualitative transcripts, supported by regression analysis and structural equation modeling to examine relationships between memory narratives, political attitudes, and interethnic trust. A conceptual model draws on Social Identity Theory and Memory Studies to test how salient group identifications mediate the effects of memory frames on political behavior and policy preferences. Descriptive statistics will profile regional variations, while inferential analyses will test hypotheses concerning the association between exposure to competing memory frames and support for inclusive versus exclusive policy agendas. The anticipated findings suggest that official state rhetoric emphasizing unity coexists with strong local-level memorial practices that reproduce particularistic memories, intensifying political polarization in Republika Srpska while offering opportunities for cross-cutting coalitions in mixed cantons. Media and education are expected to function as key mediators, with curricula and press framing either amplifying or dampening interethnic tensions depending on the alignment with regional memory cultures. The study contributes to knowledge by integrating memory politics with concrete policy outcomes in a post-conflict society, highlighting mechanisms by which memory framings shape legitimacy, governance, and interethnic cooperation. It advances methodological approaches by combining qualitative interpretive analysis with quantitative modeling to capture both discursive nuances and measurable attitudes. Policy implications include recommendations for harmonized but pluralistic curricula, transparent museum governance, and inclusive commemorative practices that recognize multiple victimhood narratives while fostering shared public spaces. The main conclusion posits that sustainable peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina requires a deliberate, transparent, and participatory memory governance framework that legitimizes diverse historical experiences without privileging any single narrative, supported by institutional checks, civil society oversight, and cross-community educational and media collaborations. Recommendations emphasize standardized monitoring of memory policy impacts, capacity-building for local humanities institutions, inclusive memorial commissions, and regional exchanges to promote dialogic memory practices across Bosniak, Croat, and Serb communities.