A Theory of Sedimentary Basin Thermal-Fluid–Tectonic Coupling Framework

Thesis Abstract

This study addresses the need for an integrative theoretical framework linking thermal, fluid, and tectonic processes in sedimentary basins to improve predictive understanding of basin-scale evolution and resource potential. The aim is to develop a formalized theory—the Sedimentary Basin Thermal-Fluid–Tectonic Coupling Framework—that systematically integrates temperature evolution, pore-fluid flow, and tectonic deformation to explain observed stratigraphic, hydrothermal, and structural patterns across multiple basins. Specific objectives are to (i) synthesize existing conceptual models into a unified coupling framework, (ii) derive testable hypotheses linking thermal regimes, fluid transport, and tectonic strain, (iii) formalize model components using a multi-physics representation, (iv) calibrate and validate the framework against empirical data from representative basins, and (v) delineate predictive metrics for exploration and climate-tectonics applications. Methodologically, the study adopts a theory-building, mixed-methods design anchored in a synthesis of published basin-scale data and targeted case studies. The population comprises global sedimentary basins with available thermal histories, fluid-inclusion records, and tectonic deformation indicators. A purposive sample of 12 basins across foreland, passive-margin, and intracratonic settings is selected to ensure diversity in tectonic regime, thermal regime, and fluid-rock interaction histories. Data collection employs a structured compilation of published thermal histories, basin modeling outputs, hydrothermal mineral assemblages, basin-scale pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) paths, and fracture-permeability indicators from borehole logs and outcrop studies. Analytical techniques include (i) Bayesian hierarchical modeling to integrate disparate datasets and quantify uncertainty in thermal-fluid-tectonic couplings, (ii) coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) simulations calibrated with basin-specific P-T-t data, (iii) generalized additive models to identify nonlinear relationships between thermal gradients, fluid pressures, and fault permeability, and (iv) network analysis of fracture systems to characterize connectivity and fluid pathways. The theoretical component employs two named theories (a) geotectonic thermodynamics, which frames basin evolution as a coupled energy and mass transport problem, and (b) poroelastic and thermoelastic theories to describe how mechanical deformation interacts with temperature and fluid pressures. A conceptual model will be formalized into a schematic multi-physics framework and converted into a computational prototype with modular components for heat transport, Darcy flow, and rock deformation. Expected findings include (i) robust evidence that thermal history modulates pore-fluid pressure evolution, thereby altering fault permeability and fracture networks; (ii) identification of characteristic coupling regimes in different basin types that govern hydrocarbon maturation, mineralization, and groundwater systems; (iii) quantification of lag times between thermal perturbations and fluid-flow responses; and (iv) delineation of feedback loops where tectonic deformation concentrates heat and fluids, reinforcing further deformation in a self-amplifying cycle. The study anticipates discovering distinct empirical signatures—such as age-dependent apparent heat flow anomalies and fracture density patterns—that align with the proposed framework’s coupling terms. The study’s contribution to knowledge lies in formalizing a comprehensive theory that bridges thermal evolution, fluid dynamics, and tectonics within sedimentary basins, providing a unified platform for interpreting basin fill trends, hydrothermal mineralization, and hydrocarbon system development. The framework offers a transferable methodology for basin assessment in petroleum and geothermal exploration, groundwater management, and paleoclimate reconstructions, with explicit parameterizations suitable for incorporation into existing basin models. The conclusion emphasizes the viability of a coupling-driven paradigm for predicting basin behavior under varying tectonic and climatic forcing, and recommends future work to extend the framework to real-time monitoring, high-resolution 3D THM modeling, and probabilistic scenario analysis under future climate and tectonic scenarios.