Assessing Urban Resilience to Heat in New York City's Food Retail Sector

Thesis Abstract

Urban heat poses a pervasive threat to the operational resilience of food retail in dense metropolitan environments, where prolonged exposure to high temperatures can compromise food safety, increase energy demand, and disrupt supply chains. This study addresses the problem of limited empirical understanding of how urban heat exposure interacts with retail infrastructure, consumer behavior, and policy frameworks to shape resilience outcomes in New York City's food retail sector. The aim is to assess the multi-scalar resilience of food retailers to heat stress and to identify actionable strategies for adaptation. Specific objectives are (1) to quantify heat exposure across retail districts using high-resolution thermal imaging and municipal climate data; (2) to evaluate the sensitivity of retail operations, including cooling energy use, stock turnover, and food safety indicators, to temperature fluctuations; (3) to examine organizational and community-level adaptive capacity through stakeholder interviews and surveys; and (4) to develop a resilience blueprint integrating urban planning, building design, and emergency response considerations. The study adopts a mixed-methods design anchored in resilience theory and socio-ecological systems, combining quantitative analysis of environmental and operational data with qualitative insights from key stakeholders. The population comprises registered food retailers in Manhattan and Brooklyn, with a stratified sample of 180 establishments operational during the peak summer season. Data collection instruments include (i) thermal mapping conducted via drone-based infrared imaging and citywide heat island datasets, (ii) utility records and point-of-sale data to assess energy consumption, stock loss, and sales volatility, (iii) structured surveys of store managers covering perceived heat risks, adaptation practices, and organizational constraints, and (iv) semi-structured interviews with 25 policymakers, 15 utility representatives, and 20 community advocates to capture governance and social dynamics. Instrument validity and reliability are ensured through pilot testing, Cronbach’s alpha checks for survey scales, and inter-coder reliability for interview transcripts. Analytical procedures integrate multiple techniques descriptive statistics and time-series analyses to characterize heat exposure and operational performance; regression analysis to identify determinants of cooling energy use and stock losses; ANOVA to compare resilience indicators across store types and neighborhoods; thematic analysis to extract patterns in stakeholder perspectives; and a structural equation model to test the theoretical linkages among exposure, adaptive capacity, and resilience outcomes. A GIS-based resilience index will be constructed to map spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability and response capabilities. The conceptual framework is informed by the Systems Theory of Resilience and the Urban Climate Adaptation framework, with explicit inclusion of social-ecological interactions and governance pathways. Expected findings include (i) evidence of a positive association between extreme heat events and increased cooling energy demand, reduced shelf-life of perishable goods, and higher incidence of stock spoilage in smaller-format stores; (ii) variation in adaptive capacity linked to capital constraints, access to reliable electricity, and proximity to cooling infrastructure; (iii) governance gaps between city climate policy, utility programs, and on-the-ground retail practices; and (iv) differential resilience outcomes across neighborhoods with disparate socio-economic profiles. The study aims to contribute to knowledge by bridging urban climate resilience theory with empirical evidence from the food retail sector, extending understanding of how micro-level firm behavior interacts with macro-level policy and infrastructure in the heat adaptation context. Practical contributions include a resilience blueprint comprising targeted recommendations on building retrofits, proactive energy management, heat-risk disclosure for supply chains, and community-based cooling hubs. The main conclusion posits that enhancing urban heat resilience in New York City’s food retail sector requires integrated measures that align building performance, energy governance, and stakeholder engagement. Recommendations emphasize (a) targeted subsidies and incentives for cooling efficiency in small to mid-sized retailers, (b) deployment of district cooling or responsive HVAC technologies coupled with demand-side management, (c) establishment of heat-risk protocols and food-safety training aligned with municipal guidelines, and (d) participatory planning processes that incorporate retailer and community voices into urban heat action plans. The study anticipates informing policymakers, utility operators, and industry associations on scalable adaptation strategies and contributing to the broader discourse on urban resilience and food security under climate change.