Assessment of Seismic Risk and Mitigation Strategies for Coastal Oil Refineries

Thesis Abstract

Coastal oil refineries are critical infrastructural assets whose operational integrity is significantly threatened by seismic hazards, especially in earthquake-prone regions where geological and environmental factors exacerbate vulnerability. This study addresses the pressing need for comprehensive seismic risk assessment and the development of effective mitigation strategies tailored to the unique operational, structural, and environmental contexts of coastal oil refineries. The primary aim is to evaluate the seismic risks faced by a representative coastal refinery in the region and to propose strategic solutions that enhance resilience and safety. The specific objectives guiding this research are (1) to analyze historical seismic activity and its correlation with structural vulnerabilities of the refinery; (2) to conduct qualitative and quantitative risk assessment using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); (3) to evaluate current structural and operational mitigation measures; (4) to model potential impact scenarios utilizing earthquake simulation and structural response analysis; and (5) to develop tailored mitigation frameworks incorporating engineering, operational, and policy dimensions. Adopting a mixed-methods research design, the study integrates quantitative tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial hazard mapping, and structural analysis models employing finite element analysis (FEA) to simulate refinery responses under various seismic intensities. The population comprises key stakeholders, including refinery engineers, safety managers, and geological experts, with a stratified sampling technique selecting 50 stakeholders for surveys and structured interviews. Data collection methods include structured questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and seismic data retrieved from regional seismic monitoring agencies spanning the past 30 years. The reliability and validity of the survey instruments are ensured through pilot testing and expert review, while seismic data are validated via cross-referencing with global seismic databases. Data analysis utilizes statistical techniques such as regression analysis to identify factors predicting vulnerability, cluster analysis for risk categorization, and thematic analysis of qualitative data to explore stakeholder perceptions of risk and mitigation efficacy. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis involves the application of the Cornell-McGuire approach and the use of software such as SHANGO, while the structural response modeling leverages ANSYS software for FEA simulations. Ethical considerations are maintained through informed consent, confidentiality, and adherence to institutional review protocols. Anticipated findings reveal that seismic activity significantly influences the structural safety of refinery components, with specific areas identified as high-risk zones due to geological factors and operational configurations. The risk modeling is expected to demonstrate potential failure scenarios, demonstrating the importance of tailored mitigation strategies. The study further anticipates discovering gaps in current safety protocols, emphasizing a need for reinforcement of structural resilience, operational adjustments, and policy interventions. The contributions of this research lie in advancing the understanding of region-specific seismic risks faced by coastal refineries and providing an integrated framework for risk evaluation and mitigation planning. It fills existing gaps by combining geophysical risk assessments with structural and operational analyses, offering a holistic approach for policymakers and engineering practitioners. The main conclusion underscores the necessity of adopting seismic-resilient design standards and proactive emergency preparedness plans to safeguard refinery operations. Based on these findings, the study recommends implementing advanced structural retrofitting, establishing continuous seismic monitoring systems, and developing comprehensive emergency response procedures aligned with international best practices. Future research is suggested to explore the integration of innovative engineering materials and real-time seismic data analytics to further enhance mitigation capabilities. This research ultimately aims to contribute a scientifically rigorous, practicable blueprint for enhancing the seismic resilience of coastal oil refineries, thereby safeguarding economic interests, human safety, and environmental sustainability in vulnerable coastal regions.