Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change on Coastal Erosion Dynamics

Thesis Abstract

Coastal erosion poses a significant threat to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure, particularly in regions undergoing rapid land use changes driven by urbanization, agriculture, and industrial activities. This study investigates the extent to which alterations in land use patterns influence the dynamics of coastal erosion, with the aim of providing empirical evidence to inform sustainable coastal zone management. The specific objectives are to quantify historical land use changes over the past two decades, assess the relationship between land use modifications and erosion rates, and develop an integrated model elucidating the underlying mechanisms linking land use practices to coastal vulnerability. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach comprising both quantitative and qualitative components. A spatial analysis of land use changes was conducted using remotely sensed Landsat imagery covering a 20-year period (2000–2020). The study area comprises a 150-square-kilometer coastal zone with diverse land use types, with a population of approximately 250,000 residents. A stratified random sampling technique was employed to select 200 households and 15 local government officials for qualitative interviews, complemented by field measurements of shoreline position at 10 selected cross-sections. Data on shoreline position were collected bi-annually over five years through GPS surveying, while land use data were extracted and classified from satellite imagery using supervised classification techniques. Additionally, hydrodynamic data, including wave height, current velocity, and rainfall, were incorporated to control for natural factors influencing erosion. Statistical analysis employed multiple regression models to assess the relationship between land use variables (e.g., deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification) and shoreline retreat rates, with model validation via residual diagnostics. Thematic analysis of interview transcripts identified local perceptions and land management practices impacting erosion, while GIS-based spatial analysis revealed correlations between land use change hotspots and erosion-prone sectors. The study also integrated the drivers–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework, culminating in a conceptual model illustrating the causal pathways linking anthropogenic land use alterations to shoreline erosion. Expected findings include a statistically significant positive correlation between urban sprawl, land clearing, and increased shoreline retreat, with urban expansion rates averaging 4.5% annually over the past decade. The analysis is anticipated to demonstrate that land use change accounts for approximately 65% of the observed variance in erosion rates, after controlling for natural factors. Qualitative insights are expected to reveal community awareness of land management practices’ influence on erosion and highlight policy gaps in land use regulation. The findings will contribute novel empirical evidence on the land–sea interface relationship, underscoring the importance of integrated coastal management strategies that incorporate land use planning. The study concludes that unregulated land use change substantially accelerates coastal erosion, emphasizing the need for sustainable development policies that balance land utilization with shoreline protection. Recommendations include implementing buffer zones and reforestation initiatives along eroding coastlines, establishing land use zoning regulations, and integrating community-based participatory approaches into coastal management frameworks. The research advances knowledge by providing a comprehensive, empirically validated model linking land use dynamics to coastal erosion, thereby filling a critical gap in the multidisciplinary understanding of coastal vulnerability under anthropogenic pressures. Policymakers, land planners, and environmental managers can leverage these insights to formulate adaptive strategies that mitigate erosion while fostering sustainable land development in coastal regions.