Titre: Plateforme IA pour la maintenance prédictive des réseaux urbains intelligents
Table Of Contents
Chapter ONE
INTRODUCTION
- 1.1Introduction
Contexte et enjeux de l’intelligence artificielle appliquée à la maintenance des réseaux urbains intelligents
- 1.2Background of the Study
Évolution des infrastructures urbaines et rôle des données en temps réel
- 1.3Statement of the Problem
Déficits actuels en disponibilité et fiabilité des réseaux urbains et limitations des approches traditionnelles de maintenance
- 1.4Aim and Objectives of the Study
Formuler une plateforme IA capable de prédire les défaillances et planifier les interventions de maintenance
- 1.5Research Questions
Quelles conditions permettent une prédiction fiable des pannes et une planification optimisée des interventions?
- 1.6Research Hypotheses
H1: Les modèles IA basés sur les données temps réel améliorent significativement la précision des prévisions de défaillance; H2: L’intégration d’un agent décisionnel optimise les coûts de maintenance
- 1.7Significance of the Study
Apport en réduction des interruptions de service et en optimisation budgétaire pour les opérateurs de réseaux urbains
- 1.8Scope and Delimitation of the Study
Portée sur les réseaux urbains d’éclairage public, de communication et de transport géré par une plateforme IA
- 1.9Limitations of the Study
Contraintes liées à la disponibilité des données historiques et à l’hétérogénéité des capteurs
- 1.10Organisation of the Study
Structure des chapitres et livrables
- 1.11Operational Definition of Terms
Définitions opérationnelles des principaux termes comme maintenance prédictive, réseaux urbains intelligents, IA, capteurs, fiabilité, etc.
Chapter TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
- 2.1Conceptual Review of AI-Driven Maintenance in Smart Grids
- 2.2Conceptual Review of Urban Networks and Edge Computing
- 2.3Theoretical Framework Establishing AI for Predictive Maintenance
- 2.4Theoretical Framework: Reliability-Centric Maintenance and Data-Driven Decision Making
- 2.5Theoretical Framework: Socio-Technical Systems in Smart Cities
- 2.6Empirical Review of AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance in Urban Infra
- 2.7Empirical Review: Data Fusion and Sensor Integration in City Networks
- 2.8Empirical Review: Anomaly Detection and Prognostics in Critical Infrastructure
- 2.9Empirical Review: Human–AI Collaboration in Operations and Maintenance
- 2.10Identified Gaps in the Literature: Data Quality and Model Generalization
- 2.11Identified Gaps in the Literature: Scalability and Interoperability
- 2.12Identified Gaps in the Literature: Ethical, Privacy, and Governance Considerations
- 2.13Conceptual Model or Summary of the Review
Integrative model mapping data sources, IA components, and maintenance decision loop
Chapter THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
- 3.1Research Design
Multi-phase design combining exploratory data analysis, model development, and pilot deployment
- 3.2Philosophical Paradigm
Pragmatic constructivism with empirical validation
- 3.3Population of the Study
Réseaux urbains intelligents: capteurs, nœuds de communication, opérateurs de maintenance
- 3.4Sample Size and Sampling Technique
Échantillonnage stratifié sur capteurs et données historiques, taille suffisante pour modélisation et validation
- 3.5Sources and Instruments of Data Collection
Bases de données opérationnelles, logs de capteurs, feuilles de route de maintenance, questionnaires auprès des opérateurs
- 3.6Validity and Reliability of Instruments
Triangulation, tests de cohérence et calibrations des capteurs
- 3.7Data Preprocessing and Feature Engineering
Nettoyage, synchronisation temporelle, imputation, création de features dérivées
- 3.8Model Development and Selection
Modèles de prévision (propres à la maintenance) et modèle d’optimisation des interventions
- 3.9Model Specification or Analytical Framework
Formulation mathématique des chaînes de Markov et des réseaux bayésiens pour la prédiction et la planification
- 3.10Data Analysis Methods
Analyse descriptive, tests statistiques, évaluation prédictive, et optimisation
- 3.11Ethical Considerations
Consentement, confidentialité des données, biais et équité dans les décisions IA
Chapter FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
- ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 4.1Data Presentation
Tableaux et graphiques des jeux de données et des indicateurs clés de maintenance
- 4.2Descriptive Analysis
Statistiques descriptives des capteurs, des pannes et des coûts
- 4.3Hypotheses Testing
Évaluation des hypothèses H1 et H2 à l’aide de mesures de précision, rappel et coût-optimisation
- 4.4Predictive Performance of AI Models
Évaluation sur ensembles de validation avec métriques pertinentes
- 4.5Prognostic Accuracy and Maintenance Scheduling Outcomes
Prédiction des pannes et planification des interventions
- 4.6Model Interpretability and Explainability
Analyse des facteurs contributifs et transparence des décisions IA
- 4.7Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Résilience du système face à des variations de données et de charges
- 4.8Discussion of Findings in Relation to the Reviewed Literature
Intégration des résultats avec les travaux antérieurs et implications
Chapter FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- 5.1Summary of Findings
Récapitulation des résultats clés et de leur contribution
- 5.2Conclusion
Réflexions finales sur l’efficacité et les limites de la plateforme
- 5.3Contribution to Knowledge
Contribution théorique et pratique à la maintenance prédictive des réseaux urbains intelligents
- 5.4Recommendations
Suggestions opérationnelles pour les opérateurs et axes d’amélioration technologique
- 5.5Suggestions for Further Studies
Propositions de recherches futures sur l’ajout de capteurs, l’extension à d’autres réseaux urbains et l’intégration avec des politiques publiques
Thesis Abstract
This study addresses the challenge of ensuring continuous reliability and cost-efficient operation of urban infrastructure networks through an AI-driven predictive maintenance platform that leverages heterogeneous data streams from smart grids, transportation systems, and environmental sensors. The aim is to develop and validate an integrated platform that (i) ingests real-time and historical sensor data, (ii) automatically detects precursors of asset degradation, (iii) prescribes maintenance actions with risk-adjusted prioritization, and (iv) provides decision-support dashboards for urban operators. Specific objectives include (1) to design a multi-modal data fusion architecture that harmonizes time-series, spatial, and event-based data from at least five asset classes (electric feeders, street lighting, water and wastewater sensors, traffic signals, and environmental monitors); (2) to implement machine learning models for remaining-useful-life (RUL) estimation and anomaly detection, comparing gradient-boosting methods, deep recurrent networks, and hybrid physics-informed models; (3) to develop a probabilistic risk-based maintenance scheduling module using Bayesian networks and Markov decision processes to optimize downtime and lifecycle costs; (4) to evaluate the platform in a urban testbed comprising 120 substations, 4000 street lights, and 1000 traffic signal controllers over a 24-month observation window; and (5) to assess user acceptance and decision quality through a mixed-methods study with 20 domain experts. The methodology adopts a pragmatic, mixed-methods research design combining quantitative predictive modeling with qualitative evaluation. The population includes urban infrastructure assets managed by a municipal utility and its operator partners in a metropolitan testbed. A stratified random sample of 500 assets across five networks is selected for model development and validation, with training and test sets drawn from 18 months of historical data and 6 months of prospective data. Data collection instruments comprise high-resolution sensor feeds, asset maintenance logs, failure incident records, geospatial metadata, and expert interviews. Instrument validity is established through content validity with domain engineers and concurrent validation against historical maintenance outcomes; reliability is assessed via test-retest consistency for sensor-derived features and inter-rater reliability for qualitative coding. Analytical techniques include (i) feature engineering and time-series modeling with gradient boosting (XGBoost) and LSTM/GRU networks for RUL prediction; (ii) anomaly detection using isolation forests and autoencoders; (iii) calibration and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts with Brier scores and continuous ranked probability scores; (iv) Bayesian networks to model failure dependencies and a Markov decision process for maintenance planning under uncertainty; (v) cost-benefit and sensitivity analyses to quantify economic impact; and (vi) thematic analysis of expert interviews to examine human-system integration and decision quality. The study integrates a physics-informed component for electrical and hydraulic asset behavior to improve generalizability. Model validation employs cross-validation, out-of-sample testing, and temporal holdout schemes, with performance benchmarks including RUL mean absolute error, precision and recall for failure anticipation, and expected annual maintenance cost reductions. Anticipated findings include (a) superior RUL predictions and earlier fault detection using hybrid AI-physics models; (b) improved maintenance prioritization yielding at least 15–20% reductions in unplanned downtime and 10–15% reductions in total lifecycle costs; (c) robust risk-informed scheduling that adapts to resource constraints and service-level requirements; and (d) positive user acceptance indicating perceived decision support usefulness and usability of the dashboards. The expected contribution to knowledge encompasses (i) a scalable, interoperable architecture for AI-driven predictive maintenance across heterogeneous urban networks; (ii) methodological advances in multi-modal data fusion and hybrid modeling for asset management; (iii) a validated decision-support framework combining machine learning, probabilistic reasoning, and operations research for urban resilience; and (iv) empirical evidence on the organizational and human factors affecting adoption of AI-enabled maintenance in smart cities. The study concludes that an AI-powered predictive maintenance platform can materially enhance reliability and reduce costs in urban networks when combined with probabilistic decision-making and human-centered design, and it offers policy and implementation guidance for municipal authorities, utility operators, and technology vendors seeking to deploy scalable smart city maintenance solutions. Recommendations include expanding sensor coverage, investing in data governance, integrating with existing asset management information systems, and conducting longitudinal evaluations to monitor long-term benefits and transferability to other urban contexts.
Thesis Overview
This research investigates a smart urban infrastructure platform that uses artificial intelligence to predict and prevent failures in city networks such as electricity, transportation, and communication systems. It aims to reduce downtime, extend asset life, and lower maintenance costs by shifting from reactive repairs to proactive interventions.
Why it matters: Urban networks are increasingly complex and interdependent. Unexpected outages disrupt services, hinder safety, and drive up operational expenses. Traditional maintenance often relies on routine checks or incident-driven fixes, which can be inefficient. An AI-driven predictive maintenance platform promises earlier warning signs, optimized maintenance scheduling, and better allocation of limited resources.
Problem or knowledge gap: While predictive maintenance has been explored in isolated domains, there is limited integration across heterogeneous urban networks and little evidence on scalable architectures that handle real-time data, model drift, and cyber-physical security in a city-wide setting. The study addresses the gap by designing a unified platform that ingests multi-source data, learns failure patterns, and recommends actions with quantified risk and impact.
What the researcher will do (step-by-step):
- Define the architectural requirements for an integrated AI-driven maintenance platform suited to smart city networks.
- Collect data from multiple urban assets (e.g., sensors from power distribution, traffic signal controllers, and communication networks) over 12–18 months, aiming for a sample of 150–250 asset units per domain.
- Preprocess data to handle missing values, sensor noise, and synchronization across sources.
- Develop and compare predictive models (e.g., regression models, survival analysis, random forests, gradient boosting, and deep learning for time-series) to estimate remaining useful life and failure probability.
- Validate models using cross-validation and back-testing on historical incidents; assess model drift over time.
- Integrate models into a decision-support module that prioritizes maintenance actions using optimization techniques (e.g., mixed-integer programming) and cost-benefit analysis.
- Evaluate the platform with a pilot in a metropolitan district, monitoring performance metrics such as maintenance cost reduction, downtime, and model accuracy.
Expected contribution: A scalable, cross-domain predictive maintenance framework for smart cities, including an open architectural blueprint, data governance practices, and a validated set of predictive and optimization models. It will provide actionable guidelines for municipal operators on implementing AI-enabled maintenance.
Outcome: Demonstrated reduction in unplanned outages and maintenance costs, with a replicable methodology for other cities to adopt, and insights into governance, security, and data-sharing requirements for urban AI platforms.