Urban regeneration and land value in post-disaster redevelopment areas: an empirical study

Thesis Abstract

Urban regeneration in post-disaster redevelopment areas presents a critical test of land value dynamics, where rebuilding efforts, policy interventions, and market expectations intersect to shape spatial and economic outcomes. The study addresses the problem of understanding how regeneration initiatives influence land value trajectories, housing affordability, and investment patterns in the aftermath of disasters, with a focus on disentangling the roles of physical infrastructure, land-use planning, and governance mechanisms. The aim is to quantify the extent to which post-disaster redevelopment strategies modify land value and to identify the pathways through which regeneration translates into economic and social gains or disparities. Specific objectives are (1) to measure changes in parcel-level land values before and after redevelopment interventions over a five-year horizon; (2) to assess the impact of infrastructure upgrades, zoning reforms, and public–private partnership (PPP) arrangements on land value appreciation; (3) to examine heterogeneity in land value responses across land-use types, ownership structures, and neighborhood characteristics; (4) to evaluate the relationship between regeneration intensity and investment activity using a mediation model; and (5) to derive policy implications for equitable value capture and sustainable regeneration. The methodology adopts a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design. The population comprises parcels within three major post-disaster redevelopment areas in a metropolitan region severely affected by a recent flood event. A stratified random sample of 420 parcels is selected to represent residential, commercial, and mixed-use zones, complemented by 60 interviews with key stakeholders (urban planners, developers, and community representatives). Quantitative data are collected from cadastral records, property tax assessments, and redevelopment project documentation spanning five years pre- and post-intervention. Regression-based analyses, including fixed-effects panel models and difference-in-differences (DiD) estimations, are employed to isolate regeneration effects on land values, controlling for macroeconomic shocks and plot-specific attributes. A mediation analysis explores the mechanisms through which infrastructure provision and zoning changes influence land value. Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews are analyzed thematically to contextualize quantitative findings and identify governance constraints and perceived value drivers. The study also applies a hedonic pricing model to decompose value components associated with proximity to upgraded infrastructure, public amenities, and risk-reduction features. Key expected findings include (i) statistically significant land value gains in parcels with direct exposure to regeneration investments, particularly in commercial and mixed-use zones, with annualized appreciation rates higher than surrounding non-intervention areas by 4–7 percentage points; (ii) amplified value effects where PPPs align private development with public risk-sharing and streamlined permitting; (iii) distinct spatial disparities, with peripheral neighborhoods experiencing slower or attenuated gains due to displacement risks and limited access to finance; (iv) mediation results indicating infrastructure quality and regulatory certainty as the strongest pathways linking regeneration to land value increases; and (v) evidence of market overhang in areas with speculative development coupled with affordability pressures. The study contributes to knowledge by offering empirical estimates of land value response to post-disaster regeneration, integrating urban economics, land-use planning, and disaster resilience theory. It advances the land value capture discourse and provides a robust methodological framework combining panel econometrics, DiD, hedonic analysis, and qualitative insights to triangulate findings. The findings inform policy on fair value capture, regeneration sequencing, and stakeholder engagement to balance efficiency, equity, and resilience. The main conclusion is that well-designed regeneration, underpinned by transparent governance, targeted infrastructure improvements, and inclusive zoning, yields measurable land value gains while mitigating inequitable displacement; however, without explicit affordability safeguards and equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, premium values risk concentrating benefits among existing landowners and developers. The study recommends (1) implementing transparent value-capture mechanisms linked to regeneration gains to fund affordable housing and public services; (2) prioritizing infrastructure-led growth with clear sequencing to maximize inclusive value creation; (3) designing zoning policies that preserve housing diversity and prevent intra-area disparities; and (4) establishing strong community engagement processes and monitoring frameworks to align private incentives with social objectives.