Sustainable Property Valuation in Lagos Island Multi-Storey Housing Estate

Thesis Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of achieving sustainable property valuation in a rapidly evolving urban context, focusing on Lagos Island’s multi-storey housing estate where market dynamics, land use changes, and environmental risks interact to influence value trajectories. The central aim is to develop a robust valuation framework that integrates economic, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors to enhance accuracy, transparency, and resilience in property assessments. Specific objectives include (1) identifying determinants of values for Lagos Island multi-storey estates under varying development scenarios; (2) evaluating the adequacy of conventional valuation approaches in capturing sustainability-related externalities; (3) proposing an integrated valuation model that incorporates ESG indicators and climate risk considerations; (4) testing the model against real-world sale and rental transactions to assess predictive performance; and (5) delineating policy and practice implications for stakeholders in estate management, financial institutions, and regulatory bodies. The study adopts a mixed-methods design to triangulate quantitative valuation accuracy with qualitative insights into stakeholder perceptions of sustainability factors. The population comprises licensed valuers, property managers, property developers, and prospective buyers operating within Lagos Island, with a target sample of 120 respondents for quantitative surveys and 20 in-depth interviews to capture nuanced contextual data. Data collection instruments include a structured questionnaire for valuers and developers, semi-structured interview guides for key informants, and a repository of transactional records (sales and rental prices, property characteristics) from three major estate firms over a five-year window. The instrument validity is ensured through expert panel review and pilot testing (n=20), while reliability is verified via Cronbach’s alpha for multi-item scales (? ? 0.70). Analytical techniques comprise multiple regression and generalized additive models to quantify the impact of ESG and climate risk variables on property values, coupled with hedonic pricing models to isolate contributory factors. Thematic analysis is employed to interpret interview data, while sensitivity analyses test model robustness under alternative scenarios. Key expected findings include (i) conventional capitalisation rate and replacement cost methods exhibit systematic underestimation or overestimation when sustainability externalities are not accounted for; (ii) ESG variables such as energy efficiency features, flood risk mitigation, neighborhood amenity scores, and governance quality demonstrably influence sale and rental values, with magnitudes varying by property size and floor level; (iii) climate-related risk indicators (e.g., flood exposure, drainage adequacy) interact with market sentiment to shift discount rates, particularly in upper-density blocks on Lagos Island; (iv) the integrated valuation model outperforms traditional models in predictive accuracy, reducing mean absolute percentage error by 12–18% in out-of-sample tests. Theoretical underpinnings draw on the Efficient Market Theory augmented with ESG risk considerations and the Human–Environment Interaction framework to explain how governance and environmental conditions shape valuation outcomes. The study contributes to knowledge by operationalizing an integrated property valuation framework tailored to high-growth coastal urban contexts, demonstrating how ESG and climate risk integration enhances valuation accuracy and market transparency. It advances methodological guidance for estate practitioners in Lagos and comparable global city centers facing similar sustainability pressures, and provides a transferable modelling approach that blends hedonic pricing with risk-adjusted discounting. Policy implications include recommendations for standardized ESG disclosure in property listings, incorporation of climate resilience measures into rating systems, and capacity-building provisions for valuers in municipal and professional training programs. The conclusion anticipates that embracing an ESG-enhanced valuation paradigm will improve investment decision-making, risk pricing, and urban development planning, thereby promoting sustainable estate management on Lagos Island. Recommendations emphasize refining data governance for transaction records, expanding access to high-resolution environmental datasets, and encouraging regulatory alignment among estate agencies, banks, and local authorities to institutionalize the proposed framework.