A Framework for Assessing Urban Green Infrastructure Resilience to Climate Change

Thesis Abstract

Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, necessitating resilient and adaptive strategies to sustain environmental, social, and economic functions. The integration of green infrastructure (GI) within urban landscapes has emerged as a critical approach to mitigating climate-related risks, yet there remains a limited understanding of how to systematically assess and enhance the resilience of such infrastructures amid changing climatic conditions. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating the resilience of urban green infrastructure to climate change, addressing the critical gap in existing assessment models. Specific objectives include identifying key resilience indicators for green infrastructure, formulating a multidimensional assessment framework, and empirically validating the framework through case studies in rapidly urbanizing environments. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis to ensure a holistic understanding of resilience dynamics. The design incorporates a sequential explorative-explanatory strategy, beginning with a qualitative phase involving stakeholder interviews and focus groups, and followed by a quantitative phase involving the ranking and scoring of identified resilience indicators. The target population encompasses urban planners, environmental managers, community stakeholders, and residents within the metropolitan area of a growing city, with a sample size of 150 respondents selected via stratified random sampling to ensure diverse representation across sectors and demographics. Data collection instruments include semi-structured interviews, focus group guides, and structured questionnaires. The instruments are validated through expert review and tested for reliability using Cronbach’s alpha (threshold > 0.7). Qualitative data are analyzed through thematic analysis, employing NVivo software to identify recurring themes related to resilience perceptions, while quantitative data are analyzed using exploratory factor analysis to identify underlying resilience constructs, followed by multiple regression analysis to assess the relationship between resilience indicators and climate vulnerability indices. The framework development also involves integrating the analytical outcomes within a systems modeling context, employing the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for weighting indicators and formulating a composite resilience score. Expected findings from this study include the identification of key resilience indicators such as ecological connectivity, infrastructure redundancy, management capacity, and community engagement. The validated framework is anticipated to provide a structured tool for urban policymakers and practitioners to assess and enhance green infrastructure resilience systematically. It is also expected that the study will reveal significant correlations between community participation levels and the robustness of green infrastructure systems against climate stressors. Insights derived from the case studies will inform best practices and policy interventions for climate-adaptive urban green planning. This research makes a substantive contribution to the scholarly understanding of urban resilience by integrating ecological, social, and infrastructural dimensions into a unified assessment framework. It advances existing models by operationalizing resilience concepts into measurable indicators, and by employing participatory approaches grounded in theories such as the Social-Ecological System (SES) framework and Adaptive Cycle theory. The framework is expected to be adaptable across various urban contexts, enhancing resilience planning strategies at local and broader scales. In conclusion, this study underscores the importance of a systematic, evidence-based approach to evaluating green infrastructure resilience in the face of climate change. It recommends adoption of the developed framework by urban authorities to inform strategic planning, resource allocation, and sustainable development initiatives. Further research is suggested to refine the framework through longitudinal application and to explore integration with emerging smart city technologies for real-time resilience monitoring. Overall, the study provides a robust, theoretically grounded, and practically applicable tool to support resilient urban development in a changing climate.