Design-led entrepreneurial ecosystems: co-creating startup support programs and evaluating impact

Thesis Abstract

Design-led entrepreneurial ecosystems have emerged as a promising approach to nurture startup activity by integrating design thinking, user-centered prototyping, and place-based collaboration into the development of supportive programs. Yet there remains a gap in understanding how co-created startup support programs influence entrepreneurial outcomes across diverse contexts and how to rigorously evaluate their impact. This study aims to design, implement, and evaluate a design-led set of startup support interventions within a metropolitan entrepreneurial ecosystem, to determine their effectiveness in enhancing startup survival, growth, and user-fit for offerings. The objectives are to (1) co-create a portfolio of design-informed supports (mentoring, prototyping facilities, access to design-led market validation, and cross-sector collaboration platforms) with founders, investors, universities, and municipal agencies; (2) implement these supports in a structured pilot across four sector-aligned startup cohorts; (3) evaluate impact on startup metrics (survival rate at 12 and 24 months, revenue growth, funding rounds completed, job creation, and customer validation scores) and ecosystem-level indicators (norms of collaboration, knowledge exchange, and perceived legitimacy of design-led practices); (4) identify mechanisms by which design-led interventions influence outcomes and map contextual moderators (industry sector, firm stage, and regional policy environment); and (5) develop a scalable implementation blueprint and evaluation framework for other cities. A mixed-methods approach will be employed within a pragmatic research design. The population comprises 350 early-stage startups engaged with the ecosystem partners, with a purposive sub-sample of 120 founders participating in in-depth interviews and 60 firms enrolled in the pilot cohorts. Data collection will combine quantitative instruments (baseline and quarterly surveys capturing business performance metrics, customer validation scores, and collaboration indices; administrative data on funding and employment; and a design-maturity index) with qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews with founders, mentors, and program facilitators; and focused group discussions with ecosystem stakeholders). Analyses will include regression analyses and difference-in-differences models to assess causal impact on key performance indicators, survival analysis for startup longevity, and mixed-methods triangulation to interpret results. Thematic analysis will be conducted on interview and discussion transcripts to uncover mechanisms and contextual factors, guided by the theoretical lens of design thinking underpinned by the Theory of Change and the ecosystems perspective. A conceptual model will link co-creation processes, design-led program components, perceived legitimacy, collaboration norms, and measurable outcomes. Expected findings include (a) higher 12- and 24-month survival rates and faster mean revenue growth for cohorts exposed to co-created design-led supports versus non-participants; (b) improved product-market fit signals and customer validation scores due to structured prototyping and rapid feedback loops; (c) enhanced cross-sector collaboration and knowledge exchange, evidenced by increased joint ventures, pilot projects, and co-funded initiatives; and (d) identification of contextual moderators, revealing that policy alignment and sector-specific needs strengthen program effectiveness. The study will contribute to knowledge by operationalizing a scalable, design-led ecosystem intervention framework, integrating design thinking with entrepreneurship support in a measurable impact model, and providing robust evidence on mechanisms linking design-led co-creation to startup and ecosystem outcomes. The main conclusion is that design-led co-creation, when embedded in an aligned policy and institutional environment, significantly improves startup performance and ecosystem health. Recommendations include adopting the blueprint for replication in similar metropolitan contexts, refining governance structures to sustain design-led practices, investing in design-capability development for ecosystem actors, and establishing ongoing, longitudinal impact monitoring to inform adaptive improvements.