A note on forecasting exchange rates using a cluster technique | Blazingprojects Postgraduate Thesis
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A note on forecasting exchange rates using a cluster technique

 

Table Of Contents


Chapter ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1Introduction
  • 1.2Background of Study
  • 1.3Problem Statement
  • 1.4Objective of Study
  • 1.5Limitation of Study
  • 1.6Scope of Study
  • 1.7Significance of Study
  • 1.8Structure of the Research
  • 1.9Definition of Terms

Chapter TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

  • 2.1Overview of Exchange Rates
  • 2.2Traditional Methods of Forecasting Exchange Rates
  • 2.3Modern Techniques in Forecasting Exchange Rates
  • 2.4Cluster Techniques in Forecasting Exchange Rates
  • 2.5Applications of Cluster Techniques in Other Fields
  • 2.6Critiques of Cluster Techniques in Forecasting
  • 2.7Case Studies on Forecasting Exchange Rates using Cluster Technique
  • 2.8Comparison with Other Forecasting Methods
  • 2.9Challenges in Implementing Cluster Techniques
  • 2.10Future Trends in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Chapter THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  • 3.1Research Methodology Overview
  • 3.2Research Design and Approach
  • 3.3Data Collection Methods
  • 3.4Sampling Techniques
  • 3.5Data Analysis Procedures
  • 3.6Validity and Reliability of Data
  • 3.7Ethical Considerations in Research
  • 3.8Limitations of the Research Methodology

Chapter FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

  • 4.1Data Analysis and Interpretation
  • 4.2Descriptive Statistics of Exchange Rate Data
  • 4.3Application of Cluster Technique on Exchange Rate Data
  • 4.4Comparison of Cluster Technique Results with Traditional Methods
  • 4.5Discussion on Findings
  • 4.6Implications of Findings
  • 4.7Recommendations for Future Studies
  • 4.8Policy Implications

Chapter FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 5.1Summary of Findings
  • 5.2Conclusion
  • 5.3Contributions to Knowledge
  • 5.4Practical Implications
  • 5.5Recommendations for Practice
  • 5.6Recommendations for Further Research

Thesis Abstract

In this note, we propose a cluster method as a simple predictive tool to forecast exchange rates (specifically the Japanese Yen and the British Pound against the US Dollar). The general goal in this study is two-fold. First of all, we verify whether or not we can accurately predict the exchange rate movements using the suggested method. Secondly, we use the generated sign predictions to build a simple trading strategy and check if we can obtain above-normal profits in the foreign exchange market. Our results reveal a sign forecasting ability for one-period-ahead which is lost when more periods ahead are considered. On the other hand, our simple trading strategy does not obtain above-normal profits.

Thesis Overview

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