Impact of Climate-Resilient Maize on Smallholder Productivity in Kenyan Cooperative

Thesis Abstract

This study investigates how climate-resilient maize varieties influence smallholder productivity within a Kenyan cooperative, addressing the persistent yield gaps driven by drought, heat stress, and erratic rainfall patterns that threaten maize-based livelihoods in semi-arid highlands. The aim is to quantify productivity gains, assess adoption determinants, and evaluate the spillover effects on household welfare and cooperative performance. Specific objectives are to (i) estimate the yield and income effects of climate-resilient maize adoption among smallholder farmers within three major Kenyan maize-producing cooperatives, (ii) identify socio-economic, agronomic, and institutional drivers of adoption intensity, (iii) examine changes in input use, risk exposure, and crop diversification associated with climate-resilient varieties, (iv) analyze gendered and youth prospects in adoption and benefit sharing, and (v) model the contribution of climate-resilient maize to cooperative resilience and market competitiveness. The methodology adopts a mixed-methods design anchored in the technology adoption framework and the sustainable livelihoods approach. The study targets smallholder members of three purposively selected Kenyan maize farmers’ cooperatives located in Embu, Meru, and Machakos counties, with a population of approximately 8,500 farmers. A stratified random sample of 600 households will be drawn, complemented by 60 key informants from cooperative management, extension services, input suppliers, and local government. Quantitative data will be gathered through structured surveys capturing plot-level yields, input costs, gross margins, rainfall and soil indices, and household welfare indicators, alongside adoption status and duration. Qualitative data will be collected via semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions to explore contextual factors, decision-making processes, and perceived constraints. Instrument validity will be ensured through pre-testing, expert reviews, and a pilot study, with reliability assessed using Cronbach’s alpha for multi-item scales. Data will be analyzed using a multi-stage approach descriptive statistics to profile respondents and adoption patterns; propensity score matching to estimate causal treatment effects of climate-resilient maize on yields and income; and panel regression models (random effects and fixed effects) to control for unobserved heterogeneity, with robustness checks including instrumental variables where endogeneity is suspected. Additional analyses will employ difference-in-differences methods if pre- and post-adoption data are available. Theoretical grounding will integrate the Diffusion of Innovation theory to interpret adoption dynamics and the Sustainable Livelihoods framework to connect field-level productivity with household resilience. Thematic analysis will be applied to qualitative data, following a rigorous coding scheme to triangulate findings with quantitative results. Key expected findings include statistically significant yield and gross margin increases for adopters of climate-resilient maize compared to non-adopters, with larger effects under stress-dome scenarios of drought and heat during the cropping season. Adoption is anticipated to be positively associated with higher education, access to extension services, secure input supply, and favorable credit terms, while barriers may include seed availability, price volatility, and gendered access to resources. A shift toward diversified cropping within adopter households and improved risk management practices are expected, contributing to enhanced cooperative liquidity, market participation, and resilience to climatic shocks. The study anticipates evidence of spillovers through knowledge transfer, improved bargaining power in input and output markets, and superior processing or storage outcomes within cooperatives. The contribution to knowledge includes (i) robust empirical evidence on the productivity and welfare impacts of climate-resilient maize within Kenyan agricultural cooperatives, (ii) refined understanding of adoption determinants and the role of agricultural institutions in scaling climate-smart seed systems, and (iii) policy-relevant insights on how cooperative structures can amplify climate resilience and equitable benefits across gender and age groups. The study will inform crop breeding programs, extension strategies, input supply chains, and cooperative governance models aimed at embedding climate resilience in smallholder maize systems. The main conclusion is that climate-resilient maize has the potential to raise productivity and household welfare for cooperative members when accompanied by accessible extension services, reliable input supply, and inclusive governance. Recommendations include scaling targeted credit facilities, strengthening seed distribution networks, enhancing gender-responsive extension, and embedding climate risk insurance mechanisms within cooperatives to sustain long-term adoption and resilience.