A Framework for Net-Zero Urban Form and Performance Modeling

Thesis Abstract

This study addresses the persistent gap between theoretical net-zero targets and their practical realization in urban form by developing a framework that integrates spatial configuration, energy performance, and mobility behavior to model net-zero outcomes at the district scale. The aim is to formulate a robust framework—A Framework for Net-Zero Urban Form and Performance Modeling—that enables planners and designers to evaluate, compare, and optimize urban forms for net-zero performance. Specific objectives are (1) to identify key urban form indicators that drive energy demand and carbon emissions across residential, commercial, and transport domains; (2) to establish a combined modeling approach that links urban morphology with building energy performance and mobility patterns; (3) to develop a modular framework that couples GIS-based spatial analysis, building energy simulations, and agent-based transport modeling; (4) to validate the framework against empirical data from a representative mid-size city; and (5) to generate policy- and design-relevant scenarios for net-zero achievement under varying climate and retrofit assumptions. Methodologically, the study adopts a mixed-methods design comprising qualitative theory-building and quantitative validation. The population includes 15 neighborhoods within a mid-sized metropolitan area with diverse morphologies and energy profiles. A stratified random sample of 60 residential and 20 commercial buildings provides detailed building energy data, while anonymized travel survey data from 2,500 respondents informs mobility behaviors. Instrumentation includes (i) a building energy modelling toolkit calibrated with measured utility data (seasonal load profiles, efficiency measures, and occupancy schedules); (ii) GIS-based spatial metrics (density, street network configuration, land-use mix, and parcel patterns); (iii) a micro-simulation kernel for agent-based transport modeling to reproduce mode choice and trip generation; and (iv) structured expert interviews with urban designers and energy policy makers to refine framework components. Validity and reliability are addressed through triangulation across energy simulations, empirical travel data, and expert validation, with test-retest reliability assessments for survey instruments and cross-validation of the energy model against observed annual energy use. The analysis proceeds in three integrated streams. First, a configurational analysis applies spatial metrics to quantify urban form features and their association with district-level energy demand using multiple regression and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to capture latent constructs of density, diversity, and design quality. Second, a dynamic simulation module links building energy performance with travel behavior via an agent-based model (ABM) that generates district energy use under different modal splits, occupancy patterns, and retrofit scenarios; results are evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations to assess uncertainty. Third, a policy-informing optimization component uses a multi-objective genetic algorithm to identify net-zero pathways that balance energy use, emissions, land-use efficiency, and retrofit costs. The theoretical basis integrates theories of urban form regulation, energy descent planning, and behavior into a composite framework, drawing on the concepts of compact city theory, energy justice, and the Theory of Planned Behavior to explain how form, technology, and behavior interact to achieve net-zero outcomes. Expected findings indicate that specific urban form configurations—high street connectivity, mixed-use blocks with compact footprints, and provision of near-site renewable and district energy opportunities—significantly reduce net energy demand and carbon emissions when coupled with targeted retrofits and behavior-oriented mobility strategies. The study anticipates quantifying the trade-offs between density and livability, detailing how incremental design adjustments can yield disproportionate gains in net-zero performance. The contribution to knowledge lies in delivering a transferable, modular framework that explicitly couples spatial configuration with energy and mobility systems, validated through empirical data and capable of scenario-based planning. The study will inform policy makers and designers on actionable design envelopes, retrofit prioritization, and governance mechanisms necessary to advance net-zero urban form in diverse city contexts. The main conclusion emphasizes that net-zero urban performance emerges from integrated design and policy packages that align morphology, energy systems, and travel demand, rather than isolated technical measures, with recommendations including the adoption of the framework in municipal planning practice, enhancement of data accessibility, and further refinement of ABM components to capture emerging mobility technologies.