A Resilience-Repair Framework for Post-Disaster Water Systems

Thesis Abstract

Post-disaster water systems face acute disruption, compromised service continuity, and increased vulnerability to secondary hazards, necessitating a cohesive framework that integrates resilience planning with repair operations to accelerate restoration and reduce socio-economic losses. The study develops a Resilience-Repair Framework (RRF) that operationalizes adaptive capacity, rapid assessment, and prioritized repair within municipal water networks subjected to extreme events. Aims are to (1) conceptualize a unified model linking resilience determinants with repair decision-making; (2) identify measurable indicators for readiness, response, recovery, and robustness; and (3) evaluate the framework in a real-world post-disaster setting to guide policy and practice. Specific objectives include mapping critical variables influencing post-disaster water restoration time; developing a multi-criteria decision-support tool for prioritizing repairs; calibrating predictive relationships between infrastructural resilience metrics and service recovery performance; and providing actionable guidelines for stakeholders regarding governance, financing, and community engagement. Methodologically, the study adopts a mixed-methods design combining a deductive framework-building phase with an empirical validation phase. The research engages three stages (i) a qualitative theory-building phase using 25 semi-structured interviews with water utility managers, civil engineers, and emergency planners, complemented by 12 focus groups with field operatives, to refine the theoretical constructs underpinning the RRF; (ii) a quantitative phase involving a cross-sectional survey of 120 water utilities across five metropolitan regions affected by severe weather events within the last decade, to quantify resilience indicators and repair performance; and (iii) a simulation-based validation using a system dynamics model of a mid-sized urban water network representing hydrological, hydraulic, and operational constraints under disruption scenarios. Data collection instruments include a structured interview protocol, a standardized resilience indicator survey, and system-parameter logs obtained from utility outage and repair reports. Validity and reliability are pursued through expert triangulation, pilot testing (n=10) of survey items, Cronbach’s alpha assessment (target >0.7), and inter-rater reliability checks for qualitative coding (Cohen’s Kappa >0.6). Analytical techniques comprise thematic analysis for qualitative data, descriptive statistics to profile respondents and indicator distributions, correlation and multiple regression analyses to test hypothesized relationships between resilience factors (e.g., redundancy, adaptability, resource mobilization) and restoration metrics (e.g., time to service restoration, percentage of population served within 24 hours), and a structural equation model to evaluate the overall fit of the RRF. The system dynamics component models feedback loops among preparedness investments, repair prioritization, and service restoration, enabling scenario analysis under varying disaster magnitudes, resource constraints, and stakeholder coordination levels. The conceptual core integrates two established theories the Resilience in Complex Systems theory (emphasizing emergent properties, adaptability, and cross-domain coordination) and the Repairable Infrastructure Theory (focusing on proactive maintenance, rapid repair capability, and fault-tolerant design). The study also identifies gaps in empirical validation of resilience-repair coupling and contributes a validated, policy-relevant framework with a practical decision-support toolkit. Expected findings indicate that higher levels of pre-disaster redundancy, cross-agency information sharing, and mobilizable repair capacity substantially reduce restoration time and improve equity of service reestablishment across neighborhoods. The multi-criteria tool is anticipated to prioritize repairs that yield the greatest marginal improvement in system reliability and service continuity under constrained budgets. The research will demonstrate statistically significant pathways from resilience investments to faster recovery, moderated by governance effectiveness and community participation. The contribution to knowledge lies in formalizing an integrative RRF that couples resilience theory with repair operations, providing a transferable model for utilities, emergency management agencies, and policymakers to anticipate, plan, and execute rapid, equitable post-disaster water restoration. Final recommendations advocate standardized resilience-repair metrics, investment in modular and mobile treatment units, interoperable data platforms, and governance arrangements that foster collaborative decision-making during the recovery phase. The study concludes that embedding resilience-oriented repair planning within routine utility governance substantially enhances post-disaster water security and community well-being.