A Sustainable Plant-Based Biorefinery Decision-Making Framework for Smallholders

Thesis Abstract

Smallholder farmers face multiple constraints in transitioning from conventional crop production to value-added, plant-based biorefineries, including feedstock variability, capital constraints, and limited access to decision-support tools that integrate agronomic, economic, and environmental outcomes. This study develops a Sustainable Plant-Based Biorefinery Decision-Making Framework (SPB-DMF) that operationalizes sustainable valorization of non-timber plant resources into bio-based products for smallholders, aiming to optimize profitability, resilience, and environmental performance. The specific objectives are (i) to identify driver variables and constraints influencing smallholder adoption of plant-based biorefinery configurations; (ii) to construct a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model integrating agronomic yields, processing costs, lifecycle environmental impacts, and market access; (iii) to quantify trade-offs among economic return, resource efficiency, and greenhouse gas mitigation under alternative feedstock–product pathways; and (iv) to validate the framework through scenario analysis and stakeholder interviews to ensure applicability across diverse smallholding contexts. The research adopts a mixed-methods design combining positivist and interpretive elements. A cross-sectional survey will be administered to 320 smallholders across three agro-ecological zones to capture feedstock availability, processing capabilities, and market linkages, complemented by 40 in-depth interviews with extension agents, cooperative leaders, and processors to elucidate socio-institutional factors. Secondary data will include regional feedstock yields, equipment costs, and price data from national databases. Data collection instruments encompass structured questionnaires, semi-structured interview guides, and documentary checklists for farm records and input costs. Validity and reliability are ensured through pilot testing (n=30), content validity by a panel of five domain experts, and test-retest reliability (r > 0.7) for survey items. The analytical approach combines descriptive statistics, regression analysis to identify determinants of adoption and profitability, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to weight criteria within the MCDM framework. The SPB-DMF will be formalized as a modular framework consisting of feedstock assessment, processing pathway selection, techno-economic and environmental evaluation using a simplified life cycle assessment (LCA) framework, and a decision-support module that synthesizes results for end-user interpretation. The study will employ scenario analysis to test robustness under feedstock price volatility and policy shifts, and will integrate stakeholder validation to refine usability. Expected findings indicate that smallholders’ decision-making is significantly shaped by access to credit, cooperative governance, and proximal processing infrastructure, with higher profitability associated with diversification into multiple plant-based products and co-located processing facilities. The MCDM component is anticipated to reveal that environmental performance and social acceptability can be prioritized without substantial economic penalties when leverage points such as improved supply chain contracts, shared milling facilities, and targeted training are implemented. The framework is expected to identify optimal biorefinery configurations for different farm typologies (low-input, medium-scale, and diversified farms) and to provide a transparent method for comparing feedstock–product pathways under varying market and policy conditions. The contribution to knowledge includes (i) a theoretically grounded, practitioner-oriented decision-making framework that integrates agronomic, economic, environmental, and socio-institutional dimensions for smallholder plant-based biorefineries; (ii) empirical evidence on incentive structures, adoption determinants, and trade-offs among sustainability criteria in developing-country contexts; and (iii) a transferable methodological approach combining MCDM, regression analysis, and qualitative insights to inform policy design, extension services, and farm-level investment decisions. The study concludes that scalable, community-owned processing modules paired with financial and institutional support can enable sustainable biorefinery adoption among smallholders, enhancing livelihood resilience while delivering environmental benefits. Policy recommendations emphasize targeted credit facilities, cooperative-based risk sharing, capacity-building programs, and facilitation of market linkages for plant-derived bio-based products. Further research directions suggest longitudinal evaluation of realized biorefinery performance and the integration of remote sensing data to improve feedstock forecasting and decision accuracy.