Optimal Transport in Municipal Transit Routing for City of Adelaide
Table Of Contents
Chapter ONE
INTRODUCTION
- 1.1Introduction
Contextualizing Optimal Transport for Adelaide’s Municipal Transit: Motivations and Core Concepts
- 1.2Background of the Study
Urban Mobility Landscape in Adelaide: Public Transit Evolution and Scheduling Challenges
- 1.3Statement of the Problem
Identified Gaps in Adelaide’s Route Efficiency and Service Reliability Under Current Schedules
- 1.4Aim and Objectives of the Study
Aim: To develop an optimal transport framework for improving route efficiency and service quality in Adelaide’s municipal transit
- 1.5Research Questions
Key Questions Targeting Route Optimization, Demand-Responsiveness, and Operational Robustness in Adelaide
- 1.6Research Hypotheses
Hypotheses on Transport Efficiency, Computational Gains, and User Experience Improvements
- 1.7Significance of the Study
Impacts for Adelaide City Council, Transit Operators, and Commuters; Contributions to Theory of Optimal Transport in Urban Networks
- 1.8Scope and Delimitation of the Study
Geographic, Temporal, and System Boundaries Within Adelaide’s Public Transit Network
- 1.9Limitations of the Study
Data Availability, Model Assumptions, and Real-world Implementation Constraints
- 1.10Organisation of the Study
Chapterwise Narrative Flow and Research Milestones for Adelaide-case Study
- 1.11Operational Definition of Terms
Definitions for OT, MT, OD Demand, Network Flow, and Service Reliability in the Adelaide Context
Chapter TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
- 2.1Conceptual Review: Transportation Optimization and Optimal Transport Theory in Urban Networks
Foundational Concepts Linking OT to Transit Routing
- 2.2Theoretical Framework: Optimal Transport Theory and Network Flow Theory
OT Theory: Monge–Kantorovich Principles; Network Flow Theory: Max-Flow Min-Cut Relevance
- 2.3Theoretical Framework: Multi-criteria Decision-Making in Transit Planning
Incorporation of Time, Cost, and Reliability Metrics
- 2.4Empirical Review: Global Applications of OT in Public Transit
Case Studies Demonstrating OT-based Routing Improvements in Cities
- 2.5Empirical Review: Adelaide-specific Transit Studies
Local Evaluations of Scheduling, Frequency, and Passenger Demand in Adelaide
- 2.6Methodological Approaches in OT for Transit
Computational Techniques, Algorithms, and Data Integration Methods
- 2.7Data Sources and Quality in Urban Transit OT Studies
Ridership, Timetable, and Network Data Challenges
- 2.8Model Validation and Performance Metrics in Transit Optimization
Accuracy, Robustness, and Generalization Measures
- 2.9Identified Gaps in the Literature
Underexplored OT-tailored Adelaide Applications, Data Limitations, and Real-time Adaptation Gaps
- 2.10Conceptual Model or Summary of the Review
A Synthesis Diagram Linking OT Theory, Data, and Transport Outcomes
- 2.11Conceptual Model for Adelaide OT-based Routing
Graphical Representation of the Proposed Framework in Adelaide
- 2.12Research Gaps and Hypothesis Derivation for Adelaide Case
Deriving Testable Hypotheses from the Review
Chapter THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
- 3.1Research Design
Case-study, data-driven, mixed-methods design tailored to Adelaide’s transit network
- 3.2Philosophical Paradigm
Post-positivist/Pragmatic stance to accommodate quantitative OT models and qualitative stakeholder insights
- 3.3Population of the Study
Public transit operators, city planners, and regular Adelaide commuters
- 3.4Sample Size and Sampling Technique
Stratified sampling of routes and user groups; power considerations for statistical tests
- 3.5Sources and Instruments of Data Collection
Timetable data, ridership counts, GPS trip data, passenger surveys, and operator interviews
- 3.6Validity and Reliability of Instruments
Triangulation, test-retest procedures, and pilot testing of surveys
- 3.7Method of Data Analysis
OT-based routing optimization, scenario analysis, and statistical hypothesis testing
- 3.8Model Specification or Analytical Framework
Monge–Kantorovich transport models integrated with time-expanded networks for Adelaide
- 3.9Ethical Considerations
Privacy, data governance, and informed consent for human subjects
- 3.10Data Processing and Software Tools
GIS, Python/R, and optimization solvers used in the study
- 3.11Assumptions underpinning the Model
Deterministic demand in short-horizon planning and stable network topology assumptions
- 3.12Validity and Reliability of Simulations
Cross-validation with historical data and out-of-sample testing
Chapter FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
- ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
- 4.1Data Presentation: Adelaide Transit Network Overview
Network topology, route categories, and service patterns in the study
- 4.2Descriptive Analysis: Ridership, Timetable Adherence, and Service Levels
Baseline statistics for key performance indicators
- 4.3OT-based Routing Scenarios and Outcomes
Results from optimal transport formulations across multiple scenarios
- 4.4Hypotheses Testing: Efficiency and Robustness Impacts
Statistical tests on travel times, transfers, and reliability metrics
- 4.5Interpretation of Results: Mechanisms Driving Improvements
Why OT improves routing under Adelaide-specific constraints
- 4.6Comparison with Traditional Routing Approaches
Benchmarks against current timetable-based routing
- 4.7Sensitivity Analysis: Demand Variability and Parameter Uncertainty
Effect of demand shifts and cost parameters on outcomes
- 4.8Findings in Relation to the Literature
Convergence or divergence with prior studies and theoretical expectations
Chapter FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- 5.1Summary of Findings
Concise synthesis of OT-driven improvements for Adelaide
- 5.2Conclusion
Implications for theory, practice, and city governance
- 5.3Contribution to Knowledge
Advancements in applying OT to urban transit in a medium-sized city context
- 5.4Recommendations
Policy and operational recommendations for Adelaide City Council and operators
- 5.5Suggestions for Further Studies
Future research avenues including real-time implementation and scalability to other cities
Thesis Abstract
This study investigates how optimal transport theory can enhance municipal transit routing in the City of Adelaide to improve service reliability, reduce travel times, and increase network resilience amid growing urban demand and climate-related disruptions. The problem addressed concerns the gap between theoretical optimal transport formulations and their operational deployment in an urban bus and tram network characterized by fixed timetables, shared lanes, and variable passenger demand. The aim is to develop and validate a data-driven routing framework that integrates dynamic demand forecasting, network flow optimization, and real-time control interventions to produce robust, cost-effective transit itineraries. Specific objectives include (i) formulating an integrated transport model that combines Kantorovich-type optimal transport with time-expanded network representations, (ii) calibrating the model using multimodal Adelaide transit data, including smart-card transactions (APE Transit), Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) traces, and timetable schedules for a 12-month period, (iii) assessing network performance under baseline and optimized routing scenarios via simulation, (iv) conducting sensitivity analyses to identify critical parameters driving performance gains, and (v) deriving policy recommendations for service planning and equity considerations. The methodology adopts a mixed-methods research design anchored in quantitative optimization with supportive qualitative validation. The population comprises the Adelaide metropolitan transit network, including bus and tram routes, fleet assignments, and passenger demand patterns. A stratified random sample of 50 weekdays and 20 weekend days from the most recent 12 months provides the observed data basis for calibration and validation. Data collection combines (a) ridership records from Adelaide Metro’s smart-card system, (b) AVL and GPS traces from bus and tram fleets, (c) timetable data, (d) road network attributes from the city’s open data portal, and (e) passenger surveys (n=1,200) to capture user preferences and acceptable level-of-service thresholds. The instruments include data extraction pipelines, a calibrated stochastic demand model, and a simulation environment built on a time-expanded network with multi-criteria objective functions. Validity and reliability are ensured through cross-validation with hold-out days, back-testing against historical delays, and sensitivity checks on demand and travel-time parameters. Analytical techniques center on the synthesis of optimal transport theory with operational transit modelling. The core model adopts a Kantorovich formulation extended to a time-expanded network, incorporating capacity constraints, service frequency, and transfer penalties. A multi-objective optimization framework balances total travel time, waiting time, and operational cost, solved via a combination of linear programming, column generation for large-scale networks, and heuristic refinements for dynamic re-routing. The study employs regression analysis to quantify the relationship between forecasted demand and observed delays, and ANOVA to test performance differences across scenarios and day-types. Additional analyses include cluster analysis to segment demand patterns, and a scenario-based simulation to evaluate resilience to disruptions such as road works or weather events. The conceptual framework is anchored in transport economics and network theory, with supporting insights from the Theory of Optimal Transport and the Spatial Equilibrium model. Expected findings indicate that the integrated routing framework can reduce average modal travel time by 12–18%, decrease average passenger waiting time by 10–15%, and lower fleet-kilometers by 6–9% under peak periods without compromising accessibility for peripheral communities. The study anticipates improvements in service reliability metrics (on-time performance and headways) and evidence of increased network resilience to disturbances through adaptive reallocation of trips and dynamic priority assignment. The contribution to knowledge lies in operationalizing optimal transport concepts within a real-world, multimodal city network, developing a reproducible modeling template for mid-sized cities, and providing empirical validation of performance gains attributable to integrated demand forecasting and dynamic routing. The main conclusion is that a data-driven, Kantorovich-based routing framework can meaningfully enhance efficiency and equity in Adelaide’s municipal transit. Practical recommendations include implementing pilot live routing with a regional control center, refining data governance for open data integration, and prioritizing equity-focused adjustments to improve access for underserved neighborhoods. Suggestions for future work encompass extending the model to include demand-responsive microtransit options and exploring real-time collaboration with adjacent urban corridors for regional transport optimization.
Thesis Overview
Optimal Transport in Municipal Transit Routing for City of Adelaide aims to improve how buses and other public transit modes are planned and operated using advanced mathematical techniques. The core idea is to treat transport routing as an optimization problem where resources (vehicles) are allocated to routes in a way that minimizes travel time, waiting time, transfers, and overall travel costs, while satisfying reliability and service level requirements.
Why it matters: Adelaide faces growing demand, changing urban form, and limited road capacity. Traditional routing methods can overlook complex interactions between passenger demand, network structure, and stochastic factors like delays. By applying optimal transport concepts, the study seeks to reallocate service quantities across routes to better match demand patterns, reduce congestion, and improve equity of access to essential services.
What problem or gap it addresses: While optimization has long guided transit planning, explicit use of optimal transport theory to move mass (passenger demand) through a multimodal network, under real-world constraints, remains underexplored in the Adelaide context. There is a need for a model that integrates network topology, timetable synchronization, and variability in demand to produce robust routing recommendations.
What the researcher will do step by step:
- Define objectives: minimize total system travel time and unmet demand while respecting fleet, timetable, and budget constraints.
- Gather data: transit schedules, vehicle fleet details, route geometries, historical ridership by time and zone, and incident delay records for a 12-month period.
- Develop models: formulate a mathematical optimization using optimal transport with constraints for vehicle capacities, service frequencies, and transfer penalties.
- Choose methods: solve using linear programming relaxations, augmented with column generation for scalability; validate with simulation on a representative urban micro-network.
- Data analysis: compare baseline routing performance with optimized solutions using metrics such as average travel time, reliability (on-time performance), and equity indicators across neighborhoods.
- Sensitivity and scenario analysis: test robustness to demand growth, fuel costs, and policy shifts (e.g., new feeder services).
- Stakeholder validation: solicit feedback from Adelaide Metro planners on practicality and implementation barriers.
Expected contributions: a transferable, data-driven routing framework that integrates optimal transport principles into municipal transit planning; insights into how demand-driven reallocation of capacity affects performance and equity; and recommendations for phased implementation in Adelaide’s network.
Potential outcomes: measurable reductions in average passenger travel time and delays, improved coverage for underserved areas, and a decision-support tool translating mathematical results into actionable timetable and route adjustments.