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An assessment of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in nigeria

 

Table Of Contents


  • Title pageApproval pageDedicationAcknowledgementAbstractTable of contentsCHAPTER ONE1.0      Introduction1.1      Background of the Study1.2      Statement of the Problem1.3      Objectives of the Study1.4      Hypothesis of the Study1.5      Significance of the Study1.6      Limitation of the StudyCHAPTER TWO2.0      LItertaure Review2.1      Theoretical Literature2.1.1The Mint Parity Theory2.1.2The Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP)2.1.3The Balance of Payment Theory2.1.4The Traditional Flow Model2.1.5The Portfolio Balance Model2.1.6The Monetary Approach2.1.7Mundell-Flemming Model2.1.8The Dornbush Model2.2      Sources of Variation in Exchange Rate2.3      How Exchange Rates have been Determined2.4      Exchange Rate Policies and Macroeconomic aggregates2.5      Exchange Rate Depreciation and Inflation2.6      Exchange Rate and balance of Payments2.7      Exchange Rate and Investment2.8      Empirical LiteratureCHAPTER THREE3.0      Methodology3.1      Model Specifications3.2       Method of Evaluation3.3      Data Required and SourcesCHAPTER FOUR4.0      Data Presentation and Analysis of Empirical Results4.1      The Empirical Results4.2      Examination of the Algebraic Signs of the Parameter Estimates4.3      Statistical Test of Significance4.4      Evaluation of the Working Hypothesis4.5      Econometric Test4.6      Implications of the ResultsCHAPTER FIVE5.0      Summary, Conclusion and Policy Recommendations5.1      Summary of the Findings5.2      Conclusion5.3      Policy RecommendationsReferencesAppendix

Thesis Abstract

This study investigates on “An assessment of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in Nigeria”. The researcher uses multi-regression analysis to capture his result, by applying ordinary least square (OLS) techniques. The dependent variable Real Exchange rate (RER) was captured by independent variables which include; Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Interest Rate (RINT), Trade Openness (TON), Real Money Supply (RMS) and Inflation Rate (INF). From the Hypothesis stated in chapter one, “That Exchange Rate fluctuations have impact on economic growth. Analysis of OLS, showed that independent variables used confirm to the apriori expectations except Real Gross Domestic Product and Inflation. Also, from the results obtained showed that exchange rate fluctuations in Nigeria can be brought about by trade openness, Real money supply, Real interest rate, but Real Gross Domestic Product and inflation has no effect in Exchange rate fluctuations in Nigeria Economic growth, and this may be as a result of inadequacy in data used or human factor. Based on the findings, the researcher put forward the following recommendations (i) The application of demand management and expenditure switching policies that should stabilize macroeconomic aggregates including exchange rates and improve the growth performance of the economy. (ii) The protection of domestic industries using appropriate trade policies is important in order to make domestic goods more competitive in the international market. (iii) Government should provide adequate incentives to domestic producers in the form of tax reduction and other subsides, which would reduce production costs and the prices of domestic goods. Thus making them more attractive globally.

Thesis Overview

<p> </p><p><strong>1.0 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</strong><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></p><p><strong>1.1 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</strong><strong>BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY</strong></p><p>Globalization is soaring by the day since the end of the World War II. According to Samuelson (2002), “Most of the world economies have been enjoying growing economic cooperation, widening trade linkages, increasing integrated financial market and rapid economic growth”. We are therefore faced with the stark reality that no nation is an Island unto herself.</p><p>International trade provides the important economic links among nations. Thus, as nations trade with other nations, there is exchange of currencies since every country uses a unique currency for domestic transactions.</p><p>An exchange rate means the price of one currency in terms of another. It is the rate at which one currency is exchanged for the other (Anyanwokoro, 1999:109). A fall in exchange rate denotes depreciation while a rise signifies appreciation. As domestic currency depreciates, that of the foreign appreciates and vice-versa.</p><p>However, this study focuses only on the appreciation and depreciation of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S Dollar.</p><p>Therefore, exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable which every government looks up to as they push for macroeconomic stability and economic progress.</p><p>The historical statistics surrounding the Nigeria exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S Dollar obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical Bulletin (2005) showed that the exchange rate was 0.72 = US 1.00 in 1970 and appreciated therefore until 1980 when N0.55 was exchanged per US dollar. A turning point was made hence forth as the exchange rate began to depreciate from 1980 to 2005. During this paid; N061, N0.02 and N7.39 per dollar were exchanged in 1981, 1986 and 1989 respectively. The trend kept on, as N8.03,N17.29 and N22.05 were exchanged per US dollar in 1990, 1992 and 1993 respectively.</p> <br><p></p>

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