Assessing Subsurface CO2 Storage Capacity at Rotterdam Port Climate Plant

Thesis Abstract

The study addresses the critical challenge of quantifying and maximizing subsurface CO2 storage capacity within the operational and regulatory context of the Rotterdam Port Climate Plant, where CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is integral to decarbonization strategies for heavy industry and intermodal logistics. The aim is to deliver a robust assessment of storage capacity under realistic reservoir conditions, fault and caprock integrity constraints, and injection dynamics, with the objective of informing proximate decision-making for facility-scale CCS deployment. Specific objectives include (1) to estimate CO2 storage capacity using geological, geomechanical, and dynamic models, (2) to evaluate seal integrity and leakage risk through caprock and fault analyses, (3) to optimize injection strategies under operational constraints and regulatory limits, (4) to quantify uncertainty propagation from geologic characterization to storage performance, and (5) to develop a decision-support framework for site suitability, monitoring, and risk management. The methodology adopts a multi-disciplinary, case-study design combining deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The population comprises subsurface formations beneath the Rotterdam Port Climate Plant, with a targeted dataset drawn from 3D seismic surveys, well log databases, core samples (n=42), and regional geologic maps. A stratified sampling approach selects representative fault blocks and lithofacies for high-resolution reservoir simulations. Data collection instruments include seismic interpretation software (Petrel, OpendTect), petrophysical analysis (NMR, porosity/permeability logging), geomechanical testing (triaxial compression tests on core plugs), and CO2 injection/leakage modeling inputs (permeability anisotropy, capillary entry pressures). Validity and reliability are ensured via cross-validation of petrophysical properties with core-derived measurements (n=42 cores), calibration of seismic-to-reservoir-property transforms, and sensitivity analyses on key parameters. Analytical methods integrate geological, geophysical, and reservoir engineering techniques. A hierarchical reservoir model is constructed in a numerical simulator (e.g., TOUGHREACT or CMG GEM) to perform history-matching of CO2 injection scenarios, employing a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty in storage capacity estimates. Regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) assess the significance of lithofacies, porosity-permeability relationships, and fault positioning on storage efficiency. Geomechanical simulations evaluate caprock integrity under sustained injection pressures, incorporating stress shadow effects and fault reactivation risk. Leakage risk is quantified through stochastic probability models, anchored by caprock seal properties and wellbore integrity assessments. Theoretical lenses include the Theory of Planned Behavior to contextualize stakeholder-driven policy acceptance and the Safety Risk Management framework to structure monitoring and contingency planning. A conceptual model synthesizes geological, engineering, and governance components to reflect the interdependencies affecting storage capacity and safety. Expected findings include a constrained storage capacity range for the Rotterdam site, with upper and lower bounds derived from probabilistic simulations (e.g., 2.3–6.8 million tonnes of CO2 stored over a 20-year horizon under nominal injection of 0.3 Mt CO2/year) and a quantified leakage probability below 0.5% under conservative caprock properties. The study anticipates that faults and lithofacies heterogeneity will exert significant control on spatial distribution of CO2 plumes and overall storage efficiency, with sensitivity analysis highlighting porosity, permeability anisotropy, and injection pressure as primary drivers of performance. The contribution to knowledge lies in an integrated, site-specific framework for assessing subsurface CO2 storage capacity that couples geological characterization with dynamic reservoir simulation and risk-informed decision support, extending current regional CCS assessments for urban-industrial port complexes. The study concludes that Rotterdam Port Climate Plant can achieve demonstrable storage with robust monitoring and adaptive management, provided caprock integrity is maintained and injection strategies are optimized to minimize overpressure and fault reactivation. Recommendations include (1) implementing an integrated monitoring plan combining baseline seismicity monitoring, downhole pressure/temperature sensing, and CO2 plume tracking via time-lapse seismic and/or borehole logging; (2) establishing a risk-based operational envelope for injection pressures and rates, with predefined contingency triggers; (3) maintaining transparent governance and stakeholder engagement to address regulatory and public acceptance concerns; and (4) prioritizing extended data collection to reduce key uncertainties in porosity, permeability, and seal properties through ongoing coring, logging, and pilot- injection tests.