Assessing Seismic Risk and Preparedness in Coastal Fishing Communities

Thesis Abstract

Coastal fishing communities are increasingly vulnerable to seismic hazards due to their geographical positioning and socio-economic reliance on maritime activities, emphasizing the critical need to assess seismic risk levels and community preparedness to mitigate potential damages and losses. This study aims to evaluate the seismic risk perception, vulnerability, and preparedness measures among fishers and local authorities in the fishing communities of Port City, with specific objectives of identifying risk awareness levels, assessing existing preparedness strategies, and exploring barriers to effective seismic risk mitigation. The research adopts a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design, combining quantitative survey data with qualitative interviews to provide comprehensive insights into community resilience. The target population includes approximately 1,200 registered fishers, local government officials, and community leaders within Port City’s coastal zone, from whom a stratified random sample of 350 respondents was selected to ensure representativeness across demographics and occupational categories. Data collection instruments comprised structured questionnaires designed to quantify risk perception, knowledge of seismic hazards, and preparedness practices, along with semi-structured interview guides to explore contextual factors influencing community response. Validity and reliability of the instruments were established through expert validation and a pilot test with 30 participants, resulting in a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.85 for the survey questionnaire. Data analysis employed descriptive statistics to profile community characteristics and risk perception levels, while inferential techniques such as multiple regression analysis identified predictors of preparedness behavior. Thematic analysis was applied to qualitative interview data to elucidate perceived barriers, cultural influences, and community mobilization patterns related to seismic risk management. Expected findings include a moderate level of seismic risk awareness among fishers, with significant gaps in preparedness actions such as early warning system utilization, emergency drills, and the existence of formal response plans. It is anticipated that higher risk perception correlates with greater preparedness levels, as substantiated by regression analysis, and that socio-economic constraints, informational deficits, and traditional beliefs serve as barriers to effective risk mitigation, as revealed through thematic analysis. The study is expected to demonstrate that community-based education programs and participatory risk assessment initiatives significantly enhance preparedness levels, aligning with the protection motivation theory and social amplification framework, which posit that risk communication and community involvement influence adaptive responses. This research contributes new empirical evidence to the field of disaster risk reduction in coastal communities, highlighting the critical role of local knowledge and socio-cultural factors in seismic preparedness. It also advances theoretical understanding by integrating the protection motivation theory with community resilience models tailored to fishing populations. The findings underscore the importance of customized, culturally sensitive interventions for enhancing disaster preparedness, and inform policymakers, disaster managers, and community organizers about effective strategies for risk communication, capacity building, and policy formulation. The study concludes that while inherent seismic risks in Port City are substantial, community preparedness can be markedly improved through targeted educational campaigns, strengthening of early warning systems, and fostering community participation in risk management planning. Recommendations include the development of locally adapted disaster response frameworks, investment in community-based monitoring infrastructure, and incorporation of traditional risk mitigation practices into formal emergency response protocols. Future research should explore longitudinal assessments of preparedness over time and evaluate the impact of innovative communication technologies on community resilience, ultimately contributing to more resilient coastal fishing communities capable of effectively confronting seismic hazards.