Short-term electric power forecast in the nigerian power system using artificial neural network | Blazingprojects Postgraduate Thesis
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Short-term electric power forecast in the nigerian power system using artificial neural network

 

Table Of Contents


Chapter ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1Introduction
  • 1.2Background of Study
  • 1.3Problem Statement
  • 1.4Objective of Study
  • 1.5Limitation of Study
  • 1.6Scope of Study
  • 1.7Significance of Study
  • 1.8Structure of the Research
  • 1.9Definition of Terms

Chapter TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

  • 2.1Overview of Short-term Electric Power Forecasting
  • 2.2Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in Power Forecasting
  • 2.3Literature Review on Short-term Power Forecasting Models
  • 2.4Case Studies on Power Forecasting Using ANN
  • 2.5Challenges in Short-term Power Forecasting
  • 2.6Advantages of Artificial Neural Networks in Power Forecasting
  • 2.7Comparison with Traditional Forecasting Methods
  • 2.8Impact of Data Quality on Forecasting Accuracy
  • 2.9Future Trends in Short-term Power Forecasting
  • 2.10Summary of Literature Review

Chapter THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  • 3.1Research Methodology Overview
  • 3.2Research Design and Rationale
  • 3.3Data Collection Methods
  • 3.4Data Analysis Techniques
  • 3.5Model Development Approach
  • 3.6Validation and Testing Procedures
  • 3.7Ethical Considerations
  • 3.8Limitations of Methodology

Chapter FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

  • 4.1Data Analysis and Results Interpretation
  • 4.2Performance Evaluation Metrics
  • 4.3Comparison of Forecasting Models
  • 4.4Impact of Input Variables on Forecast Accuracy
  • 4.5Discussion on Forecasting Errors
  • 4.6Sensitivity Analysis of the ANN Model
  • 4.7Case Studies and Application Scenarios
  • 4.8Managerial Implications of Forecasting Findings

Chapter FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 5.1Summary of Findings
  • 5.2Conclusion and Recommendations
  • 5.3Contributions to Knowledge
  • 5.4Implications for Future Research
  • 5.5Practical Applications of Research Findings

Thesis Abstract

This thesis is a study of short-term electric power forecasting in the Nigerian power system using artificial neural network model. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB tool. The model, a multilayer time delayed feed-forward artificial neural network trained with error back propagation algorithm, was made to study the pre-historical load pattern of a typical Nigerian power system in a supervised training manner. After presenting the model with a reasonable number of training samples, the model could forecast correctly electric power supply in the Nigerian power system 24 hours in advance. An absolute mean error of 4.27% was obtained when the trained neural network model was tested on one week, daily hourly load data of a typical Nigerian power station. This result demonstrates that ANN is a powerful tool for load forecasting.

Thesis Overview

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