Thesis Abstract

Abstract
Time series analysis is a powerful statistical tool used to analyze and forecast patterns in data that vary over time. In the context of healthcare, analyzing patient attendance data can provide valuable insights for resource allocation, staffing decisions, and overall operational planning. This study focuses on conducting a time series analysis of patient attendance at the University of Uyo Teaching Hospital (UNIUYO) to understand the underlying patterns and trends. The dataset used in this study consists of daily patient attendance records over a period of five years, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends. Various time series analysis techniques will be applied to the dataset, including decomposition, autocorrelation analysis, and forecasting models such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and Holt-Winters. By decomposing the time series data, we aim to identify the underlying seasonal, trend, and random components that contribute to the overall patient attendance patterns at UNIUYO Teaching Hospital. Autocorrelation analysis will help us understand the relationships between past and current patient attendance, providing insights into potential forecasting models. Forecasting models such as ARIMA and Holt-Winters will be employed to predict future patient attendance levels at the hospital. These models will take into account the historical patterns and trends identified in the data, allowing for more accurate and informed predictions. The forecasted patient attendance levels can assist hospital administrators in making proactive decisions regarding resource allocation, staffing levels, and capacity planning. Additionally, this study aims to evaluate the impact of external factors, such as public holidays, seasonal variations, and healthcare policies, on patient attendance at UNIUYO Teaching Hospital. By incorporating these external factors into the time series analysis, we can provide a more holistic understanding of the drivers behind patient attendance patterns. Overall, this research project seeks to contribute valuable insights into the patient attendance dynamics at UNIUYO Teaching Hospital through a comprehensive time series analysis. The findings from this study can inform evidence-based decision-making processes within the hospital, leading to improved operational efficiency and quality of care for patients.

Thesis Overview

1.1 INTRODUCTION

University of Uyo Teaching Hospital since its inception in 1994 has received considerable amount of people, for treatment medical advice, family planning and a host of other reason. Different categories of people have patronized the hospital for its efficiency.

It is therefore in the best interest of the researcher to use his or her knowledge of statistic application is the attendance of ill health (patients) attending the hospital. It does not and here the research as will look forward to classifying, arranging and recording the monthly, quarterly, annual, bi-annual attendance of patients in the hospital.

In an attempt to introduce efficient methods and routine towards comparing the total attendance of, in and out patient this in general comprises of male, female and children patient attending the hospital.

To crown it all, it shall be in form of data (secondary, primary data) depending on the set of people wishing to use it and purpose or criterion behind using the research, the data collected will be analysis organized, summarized and compiled. Since hospital patronage is consistent and continuous process, it will be an efficient data collection, centres and will promote statistical application and voluminous data i.e. moving average and time series analysis.

1.2 AIMS OF OBJECTIVE

1. To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ attendance.
2. To forecast the patient attendance by using linear trend method
3. To forecast for patient attendance using the fitted trend equation from 2008 to 2012

1.3 SCOPE AND LIMITATION

This research will limit it analysis on the comparison of the attendance of patient. (IN and OUT) based on secondary data collected from the hospital University of Uyo Teaching Hospital from (1994 to 2007).

VARIOUS DEPARTMENT OF THE HOSPITAL

The hospital consists of nine (9) departments. The various departments include:

Medical Department: The Medical Director is the overall boss of the hospital. He is only answerable to the AkwaIbom State Commissioner of Health. He is in charge of all medical cases.

Administration Department: Hospital secretary is the head of this department. He heads all the administrative staff of various departments of the hospital and all heads of department are under him and answerable them, as every head administered on his behalf.

Nursing Service Department: The nursing service department is in charge with central of nurses, their posting, their duty roster, their shifting training to other post basic courses.

Medical Record Department: This department deals with keeping record and collection of data.

Laboratory: Technologist works in the laboratory and for the operation of laboratories equipment.

Pharmacy Department:The pharmaceutical department is in charge with the supply of drugs, drugs custody, drug protection and storage etc.

Radiology Department: The radiology is in charge with x-ray e.g. chinstraps etc.

Ophthalmology Department:Ophthalmology department is in charge with all cases of eye, its treatment etc.

E.N.T Department: This department is in charge with all cases of ear