Thesis Abstract

Abstract
Typhoid fever remains a significant public health concern in many parts of the world, including Abia State, Nigeria. This study focuses on conducting a time series analysis on the rate of typhoid fever cases in Abia State from 2001 to 2010, using data from the Abia State University Teaching Hospital (ABSUTH) as a case study. The objective of the study is to examine the trend and seasonality of typhoid fever cases over the ten-year period to provide valuable insights for public health interventions and resource allocation. The study utilized historical data on the monthly reported cases of typhoid fever in ABSUTH from 2001 to 2010. Time series analysis techniques, including decomposition, autocorrelation, and forecasting models, were applied to the dataset to explore patterns and make projections. The analysis revealed a fluctuating trend in the rate of typhoid fever cases over the years, with certain months showing higher incidences than others. Seasonal variations were also observed in the data, indicating potential environmental or behavioral factors influencing the disease's prevalence. By decomposing the time series data, the study identified underlying patterns such as trend, seasonality, and random fluctuations. Autocorrelation analysis further confirmed the presence of dependencies between past and future typhoid fever cases. Forecasting models were then developed to predict future trends in typhoid fever cases, providing valuable information for healthcare planning and resource management. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the epidemiology of typhoid fever in Abia State and highlight the importance of continuous surveillance and monitoring of infectious diseases. The insights gained from the time series analysis can aid public health officials and policymakers in implementing targeted interventions to control and prevent the spread of typhoid fever. By identifying high-risk periods and at-risk populations, proactive measures can be taken to reduce the burden of the disease on the healthcare system and the community. Overall, this research provides a comprehensive analysis of the rate of typhoid fever cases in Abia State over a ten-year period, offering valuable information for public health planning and decision-making. The study underscores the significance of time series analysis in understanding disease dynamics and guiding effective public health responses to infectious diseases like typhoid fever.

Thesis Overview

1.0   INTRODUCTION

1.1   BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Typhoid Fever is a world wide disease which creates a very serious public healthy problem. In many under develop countries; the word health organization (WHO) estimated that about one person out of ever hundred (100) is suffering from typhoid fever. The also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem which incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5-19 years old.

Typhoid fever is a systematic disease caused by dissemination of salmonella typhoid or salmonella paratyphoid mainly characterized by fever was called because of it’s common similarity to typhus. It was clearly defined pathologically as a unique disease of it’s own, it is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. The bacteria then perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages.

According to medial dictionary (Budelka, K.G. 1971), which reveals the typhoid fever as an infection which is usually spread by contamination of food, milk or water supply with salmonella typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or by faulty personal hygiene. Symptomless carries harbouring the germ in the gall bladder and excreting it in their stools are the main sources of  out breaks of disease in this country. The average incubation period is 10-14 days. A progressive fedric illness marks the onset of disease which develops as the germ invades tymphoid tissues, including that of the small intestine (peyers patches) to profuse diarrhocal (pea soup) stools which may become frankly haemorrhagic, ultimate recovery usually begins at the end of the third week. A rose coloured rash may appear on the upper abdomen and back at the end of the first week.

1.2   STATE OF PROBLEM

Over the last decade, there has been alarming increase in the rate of recorded cases of typhoid fever in our various hospitals especially in Abia state. This has led to a very serious questions on the minds of the citizenry in particular and the professionals in our medical field in general. Ordinary, since typhoid fever is generally associated with a lot of symptoms such as fever headache, cough etc. these however make it a complicated disease with a very serious economic and social effect on the victims. This study seeks to find the prevalent rate of typhoid fever and suggest possible solutions in preventing it.

1.3   AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The following are the aims and objectives of this study.

1            To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.

2            To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.

3            To predict rate of prevalent in future.

1.4   SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This project is significant in the sense that health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care. This research work will be of great significance in the following ways:

–      This study will help the hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the particular months or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid fever in order to carryout enlightenment campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease.

–      If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be on increase, it will enable the hospital management to put intensify effort towards applying more preventive measures in order to combat the disease.

1.5   STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS

Ho: There is no significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010

Hi: There is significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.

Ho: There is no seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010

Hi: There is seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.

1.6   SCOPE OF STUDY

This study is designed to cover Aba, the commercial city of Abia state. Aba is a city and a big trading center in Abia state. It will also cover a period of ten (10) years (2001-2010).

1.7   LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The major limitation to this research work was basically on the collection of data and information is regarded as confidential, besides there was inadequate asses to the data due to reluctant attitude of the hospital medical record department to release the data on time as well as the limited available literature which the researcher was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.

1.8   DEFINITION OF TERMS

ANOREXIA: Lack of appetite for food.

SALMONELLA TYPH: This is a bacteria that causes typhoid fever.

PASBARISATION: This is heating milk to a high temperature for a very short time.

PREVALENCE: Is a measure of the frequency of existing disease at a given time.

SALMONELLAE: A tribe of schizomycetes.

SCHIZOMYESTES:A class of vegetable organisms which usually contain no photosynthetic pigmen and reproduce by fusion.

 CONTAGIOUS: Is when a disease or infection can be easily passed from one person to another through infection