Project Abstract

ABSTRACT The Nigerian capital market plays a crucial role in the country's economic development by providing a platform for companies to raise capital and for investors to invest their funds. This study aims to investigate the effect of macroeconomic determinants on the performance of the capital market in Nigeria. The study focuses on key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate. Using secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Nigerian Stock Exchange Factbook, the study employs econometric techniques such as the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and Granger causality tests to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and capital market performance in Nigeria. The study covers a period from 2000 to 2020 to capture the long-term trends and dynamics in the Nigerian capital market. The findings of the study reveal that macroeconomic determinants significantly influence the performance of the Nigerian capital market. Inflation rate and interest rate have a negative impact on stock market performance, indicating that high inflation and interest rates can hinder capital market growth. Exchange rate fluctuations also affect the capital market, with depreciation leading to lower stock prices and reduced investor confidence. On the other hand, GDP growth rate shows a positive relationship with capital market performance, suggesting that economic expansion stimulates stock market activity. Furthermore, the study uncovers a two-way relationship between macroeconomic determinants and capital market performance in Nigeria. Granger causality tests reveal both short-term and long-term causal relationships between inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, GDP growth rate, and stock market performance. This indicates that changes in macroeconomic variables not only impact the capital market but are also influenced by stock market dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policymakers, investors, and market participants in Nigeria. Understanding the impact of macroeconomic determinants on capital market performance can help stakeholders make informed decisions regarding investment strategies, monetary policy formulation, and market regulation. By promoting macroeconomic stability and implementing policies that support capital market growth, Nigeria can enhance its financial sector development and attract more domestic and foreign investments.

Project Overview

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

The capital market in any country is one of the major pillars of long term economic growth and development. The market serves a broad of clientele including dierent level of government, corporate bodies and individuals within and outside the country. For quite some time now, the capital markets generally, are believed to be heart beat of the economy given their ability to respond almost instantaneously to fundamental changes in the economy (Maku & Atanda, 2010). The capital market is known as the equity or stock market and is one of the important areas of a market economy as it provides access to capital to companies, ownership in the company for primary investors and the potentials of gains based on the rms future performance for secondary investors (Osoro,2013). Returns from such equity investments subject to vary owing to the movement of share prices, which depends on various factors which could be internal or rm specic such as earning per share, dividends and book value or external factors such as interest rate, GDP, Ination, government regulations and foreign exchange rate (Omodero & Ekwe,2016).Capital market performance is the indicator of stock market as whole. It gives signal to the investors about their future moves.

The movement in the price of the stock and the indexes gives the idea of the near future trend of the stock or sector as a whole (Maku & Atanda, 2010). As nancial domain is the most important one of an economy, so the capital market performance works as an indicator of the overall health of the economy. Capital market indexes typically gives the overall performance of the market, indexes reect the performance of the economy (Barako, 2007). Stock price is used as a benchmark or an indicator of the performance of a stock and if the price of a particular stock is rising, then it is perceived that it has certain positive news or signals. But if it decreases then there must be some news regarding its performance, which is generating negative signals to the market (Osoro, 2013). Hence, the stock price movement and index movement show the general economic trend of a country. Capital market performance aected by a wide array of factors as economic, political, international and company specic issues, and it is imperative for the nancial manager of the rms to pay due attention to the factors that inuence stock prices as this could help them enhance rm value in the market (Garcia & Liu, 1999). Brinson, Singer and Beebower (1991) dened macroeconomic variables as those that are pertinent to a broad economy at the regional or national level and aect a large population rather than a few selected individuals.

The variables indentied as having major inuence include ination, gross domestic product (GDP), currency exchange rates, interest rates, legal and regulatory environment and risk. These variables are closely observed by business, government and consumer and they have an impact on the capital market performance. Kwon and Shin (1999) observe that an economy aect the performance of its capital market and by extension the most influential macroeconomic variable are GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, ination and market risk. Sharma and Singh (2011) found that many capital market performance, which normally carry out their investment over a long duration of time and usually they have an expectation that macroeconomic variable will remain stable and favorable to their operation over the entire duration of their investment. The movement in stock prices is directly related to some fundamentals like performance of the rm, movement in key macroeconomic variable and government actions (Karitie, 2010) The linking of macroeconomic variable and capital market is the aggregate capital market framework, where a change in given underlying systematic risk factor influencing future returns. Most of the empirical studies, linking the state of macroeconomy to capital market returns or performance, are characterized by modeling a short run relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices, assuming trend stationarity (Andrew & Peter, 2007). In assessing the determinants of capital market performance, this paper will mainly consider exchange rate, inaction rate, money supply and real gross domestic product (real GDP).

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The performance of the capital market in any country is the indicator of general economic performance and is an integral part of the economy of any country. With the introduction of free and open economic policies and advanced technology. Investors are nding easy access to capital market. The fact that capital market indices have become an indicator of the health of the economy of a country indicates the importance of capital market. The increasing importance of the capital market has motivated the formulation of many theories to describe the working of the capital market (Gupta, Chavaller and Sayeki, 2008). Garcia and Liu (1999) established that macroeconomic volatility does not aect capital market performance. While Maku and Atanda (2010) revealed that the stock market performance in Nigeria is mainly acted by macroeconomic forces in the long run in Nigeria.

Ting, Feng, Weng, and Lee (2012) established that Kuala Lumpur composite index is consistently inuence by interest rate, money supply and consumer price index in short run and long run in Malaysia. Mahwish (2013) established there is negative relationship between real interest rate and stock market performance in Pakistan. Jahur, Quadir and Khan (2014) established microeconomic variable such as consumer price index, interest rate have signicant impact on the stock market performance in Banglade. It is notable that there is lack of consensus of the eect of macroeconomic factors, on capital market performance. Therefore, this study will examine the macro-economic determinant of capital market performance in Nigeria.

1.3 Research Questions

What are the relationship between the capital market and macro-economic

variable in Nigeria?

What are the impact of macroeconomic variable on the Nigerian capital market
performance?

1.4 Research Objectives

The general objective of this study is to examine the efect of the selected macroeconomic determinant of capital market performances in Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study are:

Examine the relationship between the capital market and micro-economic variable in Nigeria?

Investigate the impact of macroeconomic variable on the Nigerian capital market performance?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following hypotheses were tested for the purpose of the study;

Ho1 There is no signicant relationship between the capital market and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria.

Ho2 there is no signicant impact of macroeconomic variables on Nigerian Capital Market performance.

1.6 Signicance of the study

The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission and Nigerian Stock Exchange (policy maker); the study ndings will be of great benet in formulations and implementation of policies related to share pricing as well as regulating of stock exchange trading. The government will also be informed on how to make policies, rules and regulations regarding trading rule that will help protect investors so as to encourage investment and spur economic growth. Firms and individual (Investors): The nding will assist them in understanding the factors acting share prices and they will be better informed on how to range their investment options while banks and other financial institution will be investors who seeks ndings to nance share purchases. In addition, scholars and researchers will nd the study useful if they wish to use the nding as a basis for carried and further research on the subject.

1.7 Scope of the study

The research covered an evaluation of macroeconomic determinant of capital market performance in Nigeria. The scope of the study is the Nigerian stock exchange, making use of the capital market performance indicators such as market capitalization. The study covered the period of 1985-2015 and selected macroeconomic variable such as real GDP, ination rate and money supply in determining capital market performance.